[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 June 18 issued 2335 UT on 04 Jun 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 5 09:35:55 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 JUNE 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 05 JUNE - 07 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jun: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Jun 06 Jun 07 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low during the UT day, 4 June.
There is currently one numbered sunspot region on the visible
solar disk. For the next 3 UT days, 5-7 June, solar activity
is expected to remain at very low levels with a slight chance
for C-class flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during
the UT day, 4 June, in LASCO C2 imagery up to 04/2036 UT. During
the last 24 h, the solar wind speed decreased from 630 km/s to
currently around 480 km/s, due to the waning influence of a recurrent
trans-equatorial coronal hole. The IMF Bt during this period
was varying in the range 2-5 nT. The Bz component of IMF was
between -2 nT and 2 nT. The outlook for 5-7 June is for the solar
wind speed to continue to gradually decrease to nominal values.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Jun : A K
Australian Region 3 11220110
Darwin 1 11110001
Townsville 4 12121111
Learmonth 4 22210021
Alice Springs 2 11220010
Culgoora 3 11120111
Gingin 4 22220110
Canberra 2 11120110
Launceston 5 22221120
Hobart 3 11220110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Jun :
Macquarie Island 2 11120010
Casey 7 23221222
Mawson 19 34432153
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 8 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 54 (Unsettled)
Canberra 53 (Unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8 3202 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
06 Jun 5 Quiet
07 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were at Quiet levels across the
Australian region during the UT day, 4 June. Due to waning coronal
hole effects, geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly at
Quiet levels on UT day, 5 June, with a chance of Unsettled periods.
Mostly Quiet levels are expected on the UT days, 6-7 June.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Jun Normal Normal Normal
07 Jun Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Jun 3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 4
Jun -1
Jul -2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Jun 0 Near predicted monthly values
06 Jun 0 Near predicted monthly values
07 Jun 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 4 June, MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly
values for AUS/NZ regions. Expect mostly near predicted monthly
values for the next three UT days, 5-7 June.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.90E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:28%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jun
Speed: 641 km/sec Density: 5.1 p/cc Temp: 618000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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