[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 June 18 issued 2330 UT on 03 Jun 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 4 09:30:24 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 JUNE 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 04 JUNE - 06 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jun: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Jun 05 Jun 06 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 72/8 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low during the UT day, 3 June,
with only B-class flares. There is currently one numbered sunspot
region on the visible solar disk. For the next 3 UT days, 4-6
June, solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels
with a slight chance for C-class flares. No Earth-directed CMEs
were observed during the UT day, 3 June, via LASCO C2 imagery
up to 03/2236 UT. During the last 24 h, the solar wind speed
was at very high levels, ranging from 620 km/s to 760 km/s. These
strong solar wind speeds are in response to high speed solar
wind streams associated with a recurrent trans-equatorial coronal
hole. The IMF Bt during this period was varying in the range
3-6 nT. The Bz component of IMF was between -4 nT and 3 nT without
significant periods with negative Bz. The outlook for 4 June
is for the solar wind speed to remain mostly at strong levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 03 Jun : A K
Australian Region 7 21133221
Darwin 8 31133211
Townsville 8 22133221
Learmonth 8 21133321
Alice Springs 5 11032211
Culgoora 6 11132221
Gingin 9 22133321
Canberra 7 21033221
Launceston 9 21143222
Hobart 8 21043221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Jun :
Macquarie Island 10 21144211
Casey 16 32232451
Mawson 39 55533555
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 17 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 15 (Quiet)
Gingin 55 (Unsettled)
Canberra 37 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 16 3433 3234
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Jun 12 Unsettled
05 Jun 12 Unsettled
06 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly at quiet to unsettled
levels across the Australian region during the UT day, 3 June.
The increased magnetic activity is due to high-speed solar wind
streams associated with the recurrent trans-equatorial coronal
hole. Due to waning coronal hole effects, geomagnetic activity
is expected to decline gradually during the next three UT days,
4-6 June. On 4 June geomagnetic conditions are expected to be
mostly at quiet and unsettled levels with possible isolated active
periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jun Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Moderately depressed MUFs are expected for mid and high
latitudes in the Northern hemisphere. Such degraded conditions
is a response to the recent increase in geomagnetic activity.
Mostly near predicted monthly MUFs are expected in the Southern
hemisphere.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Jun -0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 4
Jun -1
Jul -2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Jun 0 Near predicted monthly values
05 Jun 0 Near predicted monthly values
06 Jun 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 3 June, MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly
values for AUS/NZ regions. Expect mostly near predicted monthly
values for the next three UT days, 4-6 June. Both mildly depressed
and increased MUFs are possible as a response to the recent increase
in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.40E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:27%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jun
Speed:NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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