[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 July 18 issued 2330 UT on 28 Jul 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 29 09:30:25 EST 2018 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 JULY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 29 JULY - 31 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jul:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Jul             30 Jul             31 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 28 July. There 
are currently no numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk visible 
from the Earthside. There were a few A-class flares from a new 
region that is approaching the East limb. No Earth-directed CMEs 
were observed in LASCO C2 and C3 imagery up to 28/2024 UT. During 
the UT day 28 July, the solar wind speed gradually declined, 
from around 420 km/s to 340 km/s. The total IMF Bt varied between 
4 to 5 nT. The Bz component of IMF varied between +/- 4 nT. Very 
low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three 
UT days, 29-31 July, with a slight chance for C-class flares. 
The solar wind is expected to remain at nominal values.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 28 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11121110
      Cocos Island         1   11110100
      Darwin               2   21111001
      Townsville           3   11121011
      Learmonth            3   11122100
      Alice Springs        2   11121010
      Culgoora             3   11121110
      Gingin               3   11122110
      Canberra             3   11031010
      Launceston           4   12032110
      Hobart               3   11032010    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     5   00043000
      Casey                6   23222111
      Mawson              16   34312244
      Davis               11   14421113

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              3   1000 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Jul     5    Quiet
30 Jul     5    Quiet
31 Jul     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at mainly Quiet levels across 
the Australian region on UT day 28 July, with an isolated Unsettled 
period. Mainly Quiet levels of global magnetic activity, with 
a chance of isolated Unsettled periods, are expected on UT days, 
29-31 July, as the solar wind has returned to nominal values.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
31 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Jul     0

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      7
Jul      -2
Aug      -3

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Jul     0    Near predicted monthly values
30 Jul     0    Near predicted monthly values
31 Jul     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed across the 
Aus/NZ regions on UT day 28 July, with Minor MUF depressions 
in the Niue Island Region during the local day and Moderate MUF 
enhancements in the Southern Australian Region during the local 
night. Mostly near predicted monthly MUF values are expected 
in the Aus/NZ regions for the next three UT days (29-31 July).

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jul
Speed: 420 km/sec  Density:    3.9 p/cc  Temp:   202000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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