[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 July 18 issued 2336 UT on 27 Jul 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 28 09:36:33 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 JULY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 28 JULY - 30 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jul: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Jul 29 Jul 30 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 66/0 66/0 66/0
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 27 July, with
no flares. There are currently no numbered sunspot regions on
the solar disk visible from the Earthside. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in LASCO C2 and C3 imagery up to 27/1654 UT.
During the UT day 27 July, the solar wind speed gradually declined,
from around 440 km/s to 390 km/s, currently around 420 km/s.
The total IMF Bt varied between 2 to 5 nT, currently around 5
nT. The Bz component of IMF varied between +/- 3nT. Very low
levels of solar activity are expected for the next three UT days,
28-30 July, and the solar wind is expected to return to nominal
values.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 Jul : A K
Australian Region 0 01000001
Cocos Island 1 01110001
Darwin 1 01100001
Townsville 0 01000001
Learmonth 1 01100002
Alice Springs 0 01000001
Culgoora 0 01000001
Gingin 1 01000012
Canberra 0 00000001
Launceston 0 01000001
Hobart 0 00000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 3 22110012
Mawson 9 31110015
Davis 14 22221016
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 1210 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Jul 5 Quiet
29 Jul 5 Quiet
30 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels across the
Australian region on UT day 27 July. Mainly Quiet levels of global
magnetic activity, with a chance of Unsettled periods, are expected
on UT days, 28-30 July, as the solar wind returns to nominal
values.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jul Normal Normal Normal
29 Jul Normal Normal Normal
30 Jul Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Jul -3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 7
Jul -2
Aug -3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Jul -2 Near predicted monthly values
29 Jul -2 Near predicted monthly values
30 Jul -2 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed across the
Aus/NZ regions on UT day 27 July, with Minor MUF depressions
in the Northern Australian Region during the local day. Mostly
near predicted monthly MUF values are expected in the Aus/NZ
regions for the next three UT days (28-30 July).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jul
Speed: 484 km/sec Density: 4.8 p/cc Temp: 301000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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