[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 July 18 issued 2330 UT on 14 Jul 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 15 09:30:25 EST 2018


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 JULY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 15 JULY - 17 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jul:  72/8


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Jul             16 Jul             17 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               72/8

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today (UT day 14 July). 
There are currently no numbered sunspot regions on the solar 
disk visible from the Earthside. No Earth-directed CMEs were 
observed today in LASCO C2 imagery up to 14/2024 UT and LASCO 
C3 imagery up to 14/2030 UT. However, one CME was observed in 
the LASCO C2 and C3 imagery leaving the south-west limb in the 
early hours today. This seems like a far side event and is not 
expected to have any geo-effective component. The solar wind 
speed varied mostly between 430 km/s and 510 km/s during the 
UT day today. At the time of writing of this report (~2300 UT), 
solar wind speed is 440 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied mostly 
between 2 nT and 5 nT today. The Bz component of IMF varied mostly 
between -3 nT and +2 nT during this time. The particle density 
of the solar wind at L1 stayed mostly between 3 and 6 ppcc. Very 
low levels of solar activity may be expected for the next three 
days (UT days 15 to 17 July). Effect of a small and weak coronal 
hole may keep the solar wind stream slightly strengthened for 
the next two days (UT days 15 and 16 July).

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 14 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11111010
      Cocos Island         1   11110010
      Darwin               2   21101010
      Townsville           2   21111010
      Learmonth            4   22211020
      Alice Springs        3   2110----
      Gingin               2   1011----
      Canberra             1   11011010
      Launceston           3   11122010
      Hobart               3   11122010    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     2   10122000
      Casey                5   23211120
      Mawson               9   33221132

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra            19   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7   3321 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Jul     6    Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
16 Jul     6    Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
17 Jul     4    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was quiet across the Aus region 
today (UT day 14 July). Quiet levels of geomagnetic activity 
with small possibility of isolated unsettled conditions may be 
expected for the next two days (UT days 15 and 16 July). Geomagnetic 
activity is expected to stay at quiet levels on UT day 17 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
16 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
17 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today (UT 
day 14 July) with periods of minor to mild MUF enhancements in 
some mid- and high-latitude regions. Mostly normal HF conditions 
may be expected for the next three days (UT days 15 to 17 July) 
with the possibility of slight MUF depressions and degradations 
in HF conditions on UT days 15 and 16 July due to the possibility 
of slight rise in geomagnetic activity on these days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Jul    13

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      7
Jul      -2
Aug      -3

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Jul    10    Mostly near predicted monthly values, some periods 
                of minor MUF depressions possible
16 Jul    10    Mostly near predicted monthly values, some periods 
                of minor MUF depressions possible
17 Jul    12    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed across the 
Aus/NZ regions today (UT day 14 July) with periods of minor to 
mild MUF enhancements in Australian and Antarctic regions. Mostly 
normal HF conditions may be expected in the Aus/NZ regions for 
the next three days (UT days 15 to 17 July) with the possibility 
of slight MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions on 
UT days 15 and 16 July due to the possibility of slight rise 
in geomagnetic activity on these days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.1

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jul
Speed: 480 km/sec  Density:    5.9 p/cc  Temp:   266000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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