[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 January 18 issued 2354 UT on 25 Jan 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 26 10:54:11 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 JANUARY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 26 JANUARY - 28 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jan: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Jan 27 Jan 28 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 25Jan. There were no
observed CME's in the available LASCO imagery and the visible
disk is currently spotless. Solar wind speed ranged between ~380km/s
and ~450km/s over the UT day. The total magnetic field of the
IMF, Bt declined gradually over the UT day from 10nT to be 5nT
at the time of this report. Bz, north-south component of the
IMF ranged between -9nT and +8nT with some brief sustained southward
periods attributed to minor coronal hole effects. Solar wind
is expected to remain at nominal speeds over the next 2 days.
Possible enhancement in the solar wind parameters from 28Jan
due coronal hole effects. Very Low levels of solar activity are
expected for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 25 Jan : A K
Australian Region 9 32222322
Darwin 7 22222311
Townsville 8 22222322
Learmonth 10 32222422
Culgoora 7 22222312
Gingin 10 32222422
Camden - --------
Canberra 7 22222312
Launceston 12 33322422
Hobart 8 32222321
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Jan :
Macquarie Island 10 33222420
Casey 30 46632323
Mawson 24 54422542
Davis 24 44533531
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs NA
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 0001 2314
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Jan 7 Quiet
28 Jan 11 Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed for most of the
UT day 25Jan with a notable Unsettled period between 00UT-03UT.
Mostly Quiet with possible Unsettled periods expected for the
next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Variable HF conditions observed on 25Jan with notable
enhancements and depressed MUFs in both northern and southern
hemisphere. Minor sporadic E at mid latitude stations in the
AUS/NZ region. Similar HF conditions expected for the next 3
days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Jan 3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec -10
Jan 4
Feb 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Jan -5 Near predicted monthly values
27 Jan -5 Near predicted monthly values
28 Jan -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable HF conditions observed for AUS/NZ region for
25Jan with enhancements at SWS Niue Is station and occasional
depressions for Northern AUS, Southern AUS/NZ regions. Minor
sporadic E conditions observed at SWS Learmonth, Perth and Darwin
stations during local day. Fair ionospheric support for Antarctic
regions. Similar variable HF conditions are expected for the
next 3 days with possible depressed MUF's of 10%-30% at times
for Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jan
Speed: 372 km/sec Density: 11.0 p/cc Temp: 25800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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