[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 January 18 issued 2351 UT on 24 Jan 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 25 10:51:42 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 JANUARY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 25 JANUARY - 27 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jan: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Jan 26 Jan 27 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 24Jan. There were no
observed CME's in the available LASCO imagery and the visible
disk is currently spotless. Solar wind speed decreased over the
UT day from ~410km/s at 00UT to 344km/s at 1029UT. Solar wind
then increased to be ~415km/s at the time of this report. The
north-south component of the IMF, Bz ranged between +/-2nT between
00UT-08UT. After 08UT Btotal steadily increased while Bz ranged
between +8nT and -9nT, with notable sustained southward periods
between 19UT-23UT. Solar wind is expected to remain at nominal
speeds over the next 3 days. Very Low levels of solar activity
are expected for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 24 Jan : A K
Australian Region 7 01113323
Darwin 5 11113212
Townsville 8 11123323
Learmonth 7 01123322
Culgoora 7 01113323
Gingin 5 00113312
Camden - --------
Canberra 6 01113223
Launceston 8 01223323
Hobart 6 01213312
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Jan :
Macquarie Island 7 00114312
Casey 13 23333323
Mawson 19 21223426
Davis 12 12233423
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs NA
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 2101 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Jan 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed for most of the UT day 24Jan
with a notable Unsettled period between 19UT-23UT. Mostly Quiet
with possible Unsettled periods expected for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal
26 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal
27 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal
COMMENT: Variable HF conditions observed on 24Jan with notable
northern hemisphere enhancements and depressed MUFs in the southern
hemisphere. Continued sporadic E at mid latitude stations in
the AUS/NZ region. Similar HF conditions expected for the next
3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Jan -12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
No data available during local night.
Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec -10
Jan 4
Feb 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Jan -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
26 Jan -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
27 Jan -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: Notable depressed MUFs observed for Northern AUS, Southern
AUS/NZ regions and sporadic E conditions observed at SWS Learmonth,
Brisbane, Norfolk Is. and Townsville stations between 08UT-20UT.
Normal ionospheric support for Antarctic regions. Similar conditions
are expected for the next 3 days due to low levels of EUV ionising
radiation (very low solar activity) offering no improvement in
ionospheric support and mostly quiet geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jan
Speed: 473 km/sec Density: 4.8 p/cc Temp: 234000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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