[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 January 18 issued 2330 UT on 16 Jan 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 17 10:30:43 EST 2018 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 JANUARY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 17 JANUARY - 19 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jan:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Jan             18 Jan             19 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    71/6               71/6               71/6

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today (UT day 16 January). 
There is one sunspot region (2696, S15E14 at 2225UT/16 January) 
on the solar disk visible from the earth. This is a stable region 
with beta magnetic configuration. Solar wind speed showed a gradual 
decrease from 480 to 380 km/s today. The north-south component 
of IMF, Bz, varied mostly between +/-3 nT today, whereas the 
total IMF, Bt, mostly varied between 1 and 6 nT during this time. 
Very low levels of solar activity may be expected for the next 
three days (17 to 19 January).

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 16 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   21221011
      Cocos Island         1   11010010
      Darwin               2   21111001
      Townsville           4   21221011
      Learmonth            3   21121011
      Alice Springs        3   21221001
      Culgoora             4   21221011
      Gingin               4   21121111
      Camden               4   21221011
      Canberra             3   11221001
      Launceston           4   21221111
      Hobart               4   11221111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     3   10131000
      Casey               16   34432124
      Mawson              19   42222255
      Davis               12   23232243

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7   3231 1211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Jan     5    Quiet
18 Jan     5    Quiet
19 Jan     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet levels across the 
Australian region today (UT day 16 January). Quiet geomagnetic 
conditions are expected in this region for the next three days 
(17 to 19 January).

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions stayed mostly at normal levels with some 
periods of small MUF enhancements as well as periods of small 
MUF depressions in some low latitude regions. Periods of Sporadic 
E blanketing were also evident. Mostly normal HF conditions may 
be expected for the next three days (17 to 19 January) with some 
possibility of minor MUF depressions as the solar activity is 
expected to stay at very low levels during this period, which 
may result in the weakening of ionising radiation.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Jan     5

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      -10
Jan      4
Feb      4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Jan     0    Near predicted monthly values
18 Jan     0    Near predicted monthly values
19 Jan     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions stayed mostly at normal levels in Australian 
region with some periods of small MUF enhancements as well as 
period of small MUF depressions in the Northern parts of the 
region. Periods of Sporadic E blanketing were also evident. Mostly 
normal HF conditions may be expected in the region for the next 
three days (17 to 19 January) with some possibility of minor 
MUF depressions as the solar activity is expected to stay at 
very low levels during this period, which may result in the weakening 
of ionising radiation.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jan
Speed: 493 km/sec  Density:    6.6 p/cc  Temp:   218000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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