[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 January 18 issued 2346 UT on 14 Jan 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Mon Jan 15 10:46:10 EST 2018

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 JANUARY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 15 JANUARY - 17 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jan:  71/6

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Jan             16 Jan             17 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 14 Jan. Very Low 
levels of solar flare activity are expected for the next three 
UT days (15-17 Jan). No earthward directed CMEs were observed 
in the available LASCO imagery on UT day 14 Jan. In the last 
24 hours, the solar wind speed peaked at 612 km/s at 14/0231 
UT. After midday, the speed has decreased and is currently around 
510 km/s. The IMF Bt varied between 5 to 11 nT in the early part 
of the UT day 14 Jan, then settled down to between 4-5 nT for 
the most of the day. The IMF Bz component varied between -10 
to +9 nT, reaching a maximum negative value of -9.5 nT at 14/0331 
UT. It is currently varying between +/-3.5 nT. The solar wind 
is expected to continue to decrease on 15 Jan due to the waning 
influence the coronal hole, returning to background levels on 
16-17 Jan.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled, 
with isolated Active periods

Estimated Indices 14 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   33212202
      Cocos Island         6   32113201
      Darwin               7   33112202
      Townsville           7   33112212
      Learmonth           12   43123313
      Alice Springs        8   33113202
      Culgoora             7   33212201
      Gingin              11   43213312
      Camden               8   33212212
      Canberra             7   33212202
      Launceston          12   34313312
      Hobart              10   34212302    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Jan :
      Macquarie Island    10   34213301
      Casey               30   56533224
      Mawson              23   35433235
      Davis               24   45533242

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              19   (Quiet)
      Canberra            20   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              5   0011 1232     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Jan     9    Quiet to Unsettled, with chance of isolated Active 
                periods
16 Jan     5    Quiet
17 Jan     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions mainly Quiet to Unsettled, with 
isolated Active periods, across the Australian region on UT day, 
14 Jan. Quiet to Minor and Moderate Storm conditions were experienced 
in the Antarctic region. On UT day 15 Jan, geomagnetic activity 
is expected to be at Quiet to Unsettled levels, with a chance 
of isolated Active periods. Geomagnetic activity is expected 
to be at Quiet levels on 16-17 Jan.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
16 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
14 Jan    -4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      -10
Jan      4
Feb      4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Jan   -15    15 to 25% below predicted monthly values
16 Jan    -5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                20%
17 Jan     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: On UT day 14 Jan, MUFs experienced Minor to Moderate 
MUF depressions in the Australian and Niue Island Regions. MUFs 
were enhanced in all regions between approximately 0600 UT and 
1200 UT due to active to minor geomagnetic storm levels in the 
planetary K index early in the UT day, with Kp reaching 4 and 
5. Periods of Sporadic E blanketing were also evident. On UT 
day 15 Jan, MUFs are expected to experience minor to moderate 
depressions due to the geomagnetic activity, returning to near 
predicted monthly values on 16 Jan.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jan
Speed: 333 km/sec  Density:   14.0 p/cc  Temp:    20400 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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