[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 January 18 issued 2342 UT on 11 Jan 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Fri Jan 12 10:42:05 EST 2018

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 JANUARY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 12 JANUARY - 14 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jan:  71/6

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Jan             13 Jan             14 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 11 Jan, with no 
flares. Very low levels of solar flare activity are expected 
for the next three UT days (12-14 Jan). No earthward directed 
CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery on UT day 11 
Jan. Over the last 24 hours, the solar wind speed decreased from 
around 420 km/s, currently around 360 km/s. This is due to the 
waning influence of a positive polarity north polar coronal hole. 
The IMF Bt varied between 2-5 nT. The IMF Bz component fluctuated 
between -4/+4 nT. The solar wind is expected to become enhanced 
on 13 January due to the arrival of a recurrent positive polarity 
coronal hole. Last rotation, the solar winds from this coronal 
hole reached speeds of over 600 km/s, however it is expected 
to have a reduced influence on the Earth this rotation due to 
its reduced size, and location in the northern hemisphere. Stereo 
A also experienced reduced solar wind speeds from this coronal 
hole during this rotation.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 11 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   01101011
      Cocos Island         1   10010001
      Darwin               2   02101012
      Townsville           2   01101012
      Learmonth            2   11011002
      Alice Springs        1   00001012
      Culgoora             2   01101021
      Camden               2   11101021
      Canberra             1   01101011
      Launceston           3   11111021
      Hobart               1   01101011    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     1   01001010
      Casey               10   34322012
      Mawson               7   23112113

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              3   1111 0100     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Jan     4    Quiet
13 Jan    14    Quiet to Active
14 Jan    12    Quiet to Active

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were Quiet across the Australian 
region on UT day, 11 Jan. Quiet to Unsettled conditions were 
experienced in the Antarctic region. On UT day 12 Jan, geomagnetic 
activity is expected to be at Quiet levels due to the waning 
influence of the CH HSS. Conditions are expected to increase 
to Quiet to Active levels on 13-14 Jan due to the arrival of 
another CH HSS. Last rotation, this CH HSS caused Minor Storm 
periods, however this rotation it is expected to have a reduced 
influence on the Earth.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
14 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
11 Jan   -15

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      -10
Jan      4
Feb      4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Jan   -10    Depressed 15 to 25%/near predicted monthly values
13 Jan     4    Near predicted monthly values
14 Jan   -10    Depressed 15 to 25%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions were observed across 
Aus/NZ regions on UT day 11 Jan. Periods of Sporadic E blanketing 
were also evident. MUFs are expected to experience minor to moderate 
depressions on 12 Jan, then return to near predicted monthly 
values on 13 Jan.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.2

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jan
Speed: 459 km/sec  Density:    5.6 p/cc  Temp:   182000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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