[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 January 18 issued 2332 UT on 01 Jan 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Tue Jan 2 10:32:30 EST 2018

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 JANUARY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 02 JANUARY - 04 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jan:  69/3

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Jan             03 Jan             04 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               69/3               69/3

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 1 Jan, with no 
flares. There is currently no numbered solar region on the visible 
disk. Very low levels of solar flare activity is expected for 
the next three UT days (2-4 Jan), with a very weak chance of 
C-class flares. No earthward directed CMEs were observed in the 
available LASCO imagery on UT day 1 Jan. The solar wind speed 
during 1 Jan was enhanced due to arrival of the CIR associated 
with the recurrent Northern Hemisphere coronal hole, the speed 
reached 490 km/s. The IMF Bt was also enhanced up to 01/0515 
UT and reached 12 nT, then it returned to its nominal values. 
The Bz component of IMF varied in the range -6/+10 nT. The two 
day outlook (2-3 Jan) is for the solar wind speed to be enhanced 
due to coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jan: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 01 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   24223011
      Cocos Island         6   23223001
      Darwin               6   23223001
      Townsville          10   34223012
      Learmonth            8   23224011
      Alice Springs        6   23223001
      Gingin               8   33223011
      Camden               9   34223011
      Canberra             7   24223000
      Launceston          14   35224012
      Hobart               8   24223011    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Jan :
      Macquarie Island    13   24235101
      Casey               23   46523112
      Mawson              21   44333325
      Davis               20   34433225

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             18                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   0000 0113     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Jan    12    Unsettled
03 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled
04 Jan     4    Quiet

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 63 was issued on 31 December 
and is current for 1-2 Jan. Magnetic conditions were mostly at 
quiet to active levels across the Australian region during the 
UT day, 1 Jan. Today, 2 Jan, magnetic conditions are expected 
to be mostly at quiet to unsettled levels with possible isolated 
active periods. The forecasted increased geomagnetic activity 
is due to the recurrent Northern Hemisphere coronal hole. Then 
the geomagnetic activity is expected to decline.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
03 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
04 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depression could occur in the 
Southern mid and high latitude regions in response to the recent 
increase in the geomagnetic activity associated with the coronal 
hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
01 Jan     6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      -10
Jan      4
Feb      4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Jan   -10    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                25%
03 Jan    -5    Near predicted monthly values
04 Jan     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 1 was issued on 1 January 
and is current for 2 Jan only. Near monthly predicted MUFs were 
observed across Aus/NZ regions on UT day 1 Jan. Incidence of 
Sporadic E blanketing were still evident over some Australian 
ionosonde sites. The two day outlook (2 - 3 Jan) is for minor 
to moderate MUF depression in response to the recent increase 
in the geomagnetic activity associated with the coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 31 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.8

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Dec
Speed: 360 km/sec  Density:    7.3 p/cc  Temp:    35500 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.