[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 February 18 issued 2330 UT on 26 Feb 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 27 10:30:22 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 FEBRUARY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 27 FEBRUARY - 01 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Feb: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Feb 28 Feb 01 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 26 February. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the LASCO C2 coronagraph
imagery for 26 February until 2024UT. The solar wind speed first
increased from 390 km/s to 470 km/s by 1410 UT and then decreased
to 410 km/s (by the time of this report, ~2300 UT) during the
last 24 hours. The IMF Bt varied between 1 and 8 nT and the Bz
component ranged from -7 to +5 nT during most parts of this period.
Very Low levels of solar flare activity are expected for the
next three UT days, 27 February to 01 March.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Feb : A K
Australian Region 5 21222201
Cocos Island 2 11121001
Darwin 4 21122201
Townsville 5 21222202
Learmonth 5 11222202
Alice Springs 5 21222201
Gingin 5 21122301
Canberra 4 11221201
Launceston 8 22332301
Hobart 5 12222201
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Feb :
Macquarie Island 7 11233300
Casey 14 24432322
Mawson 25 43432246
Davis 16 33432234
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 1000 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Feb 10 Mostly quiet to unsettled
28 Feb 7 Mostly quiet, some unsettled periods possible
01 Mar 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly Quiet across the Australian
region and Quiet to Active levels over the Antarctic region during
the UT day, 26 Feb. Expect Quiet to Unsettled conditions, with
a possibility of isolated Active periods in the higher latitudes
for 27 February. The forecasted disturbed conditions are in response
to a polar connected equatorial coronal hole. The following two
days 28 February and 01 March should gradually return to mostly
Quiet levels.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Feb Normal Normal Normal
01 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Expect mostly Normal HF conditions, however, isolated
pockets of minor to mild depressions may occur today (27 February),
particularly in the Southern hemisphere as a consequence of the
expected slight increase in geomagnetic activity and low EUV
levels.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Feb -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 40% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan -6
Feb 4
Mar 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Feb -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
28 Feb 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
01 Mar 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted to moderately depressed across
the Australian region during the UT day 26 February. There were
also isolated cases of Sporadic E blanketing over Australian
ionosonde sites. For 27 February, MUFs are expected to be moderately
depressed to near monthly predicted levels due to continued expected
slight rise in geomagnetic activity and low EUV levels. MUFs
in the Australian region are expected to return to more normal
levels on 28 February and 01 March.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Feb
Speed: 415 km/sec Density: 6.4 p/cc Temp: 157000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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