[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 December 18 issued 2332 UT on 13 Dec 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 14 10:32:48 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 DECEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 DECEMBER - 16 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Dec: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Dec 15 Dec 16 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 13 December.
There are currently no sunspots on the visible solar disc. Solar
activity is expected to stay Very Low for the next three UT days,
14-16 December. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph imagery. On UT day 13 December, the solar wind speed
gradually decreased from around 420 km/s to currently around
350 km/s. During the last 24 hours, the total IMF (Bt) fluctuated
between 3 to 5 nT and the north-south component of IMF (Bz) fluctuated
between +/-4 nT. The solar winds may become enhanced late on
UT day 15 December or on UT day 16 due to the effects of a recurrent
negative polarity southern hemisphere coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Dec : A K
Australian Region 1 11100100
Cocos Island 0 00100100
Darwin 1 11100100
Townsville 1 11100110
Learmonth 1 01010200
Alice Springs 1 11100100
Culgoora 1 11100110
Gingin 1 01110100
Canberra 0 10100000
Launceston 2 11101111
Hobart 1 01100100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Dec :
Macquarie Island 0 01000000
Casey 8 33321211
Mawson 8 24112212
Davis 9 14322221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 19 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 1000 0110
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Dec 4 Quiet
15 Dec 8 Quiet, with possible Unsettled to Active levels
late in the day
16 Dec 10 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 13 December. Mainly Quiet to Unsettled levels
were observed in Antarctica, with an isolated Active period.
During the next two UT days, 14-15 December, the global geomagnetic
activity is expected to be mainly Quiet. Geomagnetic activity
may increase to Unsettled to Active levels late on UT day 15
December or on UT day 16 December if the solar wind becomes enhanced
due to the influence of a recurrent coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: On UT day 13 December, there were significant MUF depressions
over the Southern Hemisphere as compared to the monthly predicted
levels due to very low levels of ionising radiation from the
Sun. Similar depressions are possible on UT day 13 December as
the solar effects persist.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Dec -49
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -32
Dec -8
Jan -9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Dec -40 Depressed 15 to 35%/near predicted monthly values
15 Dec -40 Depressed 15 to 35%/near predicted monthly values
16 Dec -30 Depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 26 was issued on 13 December
and is current for 14-15 Dec. On UT day 13 December, there were
minor to moderate MUF depressions across the Australian region
as compared to the monthly predicted levels, with some severe
MUF depressions during the local night in the Niue Island, Northern
Australian and Central Australian regions. Sporadic E layers
were seen across the Australian region and in Antarctica. Similar
conditions are expected for UT days, 14-15 December, as a consequence
of the continued very low levels of ionising radiation from the
Sun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Dec
Speed: 460 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 161000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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