[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 April 18 issued 2330 UT on 10 Apr 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 11 09:30:21 EST 2018 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 APRIL 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 11 APRIL - 13 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Apr:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Apr             12 Apr             13 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels on UT day 10 April, 
with no solar flares. Very low levels of solar flare activity 
are expected for the next three UT days, 11-13 April. No Earth-directed 
CMEs were observed in the available imagery during the last 24 
hours. On UT day 10 April the solar wind speed varied in the 
range 490-590 km/s due to the influence of the high speed stream 
from the recurrent trans-equatorial coronal hole. The IMF Bt 
ranged between 5 nT and 9 nT and the Bz component of IMF was 
between -8 nT and 7 nT. There was one significant prolonged period 
with negative Bz, from 0150 UT to 0825 UT. The outlook for today 
(11 April) is for the solar wind speed to remain increased.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 10 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region      12   23333322
      Cocos Island         7   12223212
      Darwin              11   23323322
      Townsville          12   23333322
      Learmonth           13   22333432
      Alice Springs       11   23323322
      Culgoora            10   13323322
      Gingin              11   22323332
      Canberra            11   13333322
      Launceston          18   23434433
      Hobart              14   13434322    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Apr :
      Macquarie Island    35   14555633
      Casey               18   44433332
      Mawson              34   25443546
      Davis               39   34443357

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               9   (Quiet)
      Canberra            17   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             21                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             10   1131 2234     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Apr    19    Active
12 Apr    15    Unsettled to Active
13 Apr    12    Unsettled

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 7 was issued on 9 April and 
is current for 10-11 Apr. Magnetic conditions were mostly at 
quiet to unsettled levels across the Australian region during 
the UT day, 9 April. Conditions are expected to be mostly at 
unsettled to active levels for 11-12 April in response to the 
high speed solar wind stream associated with the recurrent trans-equatorial 
coronal hole. Isolated periods with minor storm levels are also 
possible on 11 April.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
12 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
13 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: On 11 April mildly degraded HF conditions are expected 
due to predicted increase in geomagnetic activity. MUFs are expected 
to remain mostly near predicted monthly values on 11 April.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Apr    15

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      2
Apr      2
May      1

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Apr     5    Near predicted monthly values
12 Apr    -5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15%
13 Apr     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: On UT day 10 April MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly 
values. There were a few cases of Sporadic E blanketing over 
the Australian Ionosonde sites. The three day outlook (11-13 
April) is for MUFs to be mostly near predicted monthly levels. 
Mild enhancements are also likely on 11 April and mild depressions 
on 12 April in response to the recent increase in geomagnetic 
activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.00E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Apr
Speed: 435 km/sec  Density:    8.7 p/cc  Temp:   188000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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