[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 September 17 issued 2330 UT on 21 Sep 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 22 09:30:18 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 SEPTEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 SEPTEMBER - 24 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Sep: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Sep 23 Sep 24 Sep
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Low to moderate
Fadeouts None expected None expected Possible
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 85/27 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 21 September,
with no flares. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available
LASCO imagery. Expect mostly very low to low levels of solar
activity for the next three UT days (22-24 September) with a
chance of M-class flares for 24 September due to returning AR
2673. On UT day 21 September, the solar wind speed was gradually
decreasing on average from 450 km/s to 400 km/s, varying in the
range 400-470 km/s. The IMF Bt varied between 3 nT and 6 nT during
the UT day. The Bz component of IMF fluctuated between -4 nT
and +2 nT. The two day outlook (22-23 September) is for the solar
wind speed to remain near its nominal values.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 Sep : A K
Australian Region 4 11222011
Cocos Island 3 11111021
Darwin 4 11222011
Townsville 4 21222011
Learmonth 4 11122022
Alice Springs 3 11122011
Norfolk Island 4 21312010
Culgoora 4 11222011
Gingin 4 10122121
Camden 4 11222011
Canberra 4 11222011
Launceston 6 12323011
Hobart 4 11222011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Sep :
Macquarie Island 6 02333100
Casey 11 34232122
Mawson 20 23232146
Davis 10 22343121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 18 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9 3322 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Sep 7 Quiet
23 Sep 7 Quiet
24 Sep 13 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed across the
Australian region during the UT day, 21 September. Mostly quiet
conditions are expected for the next 2 UT days, 22-23 September.
The geomagnetic activity can reach active levels on 24 September
due to coronal hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values over the last
24 hours. Similar HF conditions are expected for the next 3 UT
days, 22-24 September.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Sep 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 10
Sep 5
Oct 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Sep 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
23 Sep 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
24 Sep 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over
the last 24 hours in the Australian/NZ region. Minor depressions
were also observed in the Northern Australian region during local
night. Similar HF conditions are expected for the next three
UT days, 22-24 September.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:31%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Sep
Speed: 472 km/sec Density: 5.3 p/cc Temp: 202000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list