[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 September 17 issued 2330 UT on 20 Sep 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 21 09:30:19 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 SEPTEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 SEPTEMBER - 23 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Sep: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Sep 22 Sep 23 Sep
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 73/9 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 20 September,
with only B-class flares. No Earth directed CMEs were observed
in the available LASCO imagery. Expect very low to low levels
of solar activity for the next three UT days (21-23 September)
with a weak chance of M-class flares for 23 September due to
returning AR 2673. On UT day 20 September, the solar wind speed
was gradually decreasing from 520 km/s to 440 km/s. The IMF Bt
varied between 4 nT and 6 nT during the UT day. The Bz component
of IMF fluctuated between -5 nT and 5 nT. The two day outlook
(21-22 September) is for the solar wind speed to gradually decrease
as the coronal hole effects wane.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 20 Sep : A K
Australian Region 7 22233110
Cocos Island 3 11112020
Darwin 7 12233111
Townsville 6 11233111
Learmonth 9 22234220
Alice Springs 6 12233110
Norfolk Island 5 21232011
Culgoora 7 22233110
Gingin 7 22233120
Camden 7 22233110
Canberra 5 12223110
Launceston 9 22234111
Hobart 6 12233110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Sep :
Macquarie Island 13 23245200
Casey 16 35433121
Mawson 19 54333241
Davis 17 34443232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 3112 1232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Sep 7 Quiet
23 Sep 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed
across the Australian region during the UT day, 20 September.
Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the next 3 UT days,
21-23 September.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values over the last
24 hours. Similar HF conditions are expected for today, 21 September.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Sep 3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 10
Sep 5
Oct 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Sep 5 Near predicted monthly values
22 Sep 5 Near predicted monthly values
23 Sep 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over
the last 24 hours in the Australian/NZ region. Similar HF conditions
are expected for the next three UT days, 21-23 September.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:34%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Sep
Speed: 528 km/sec Density: 5.0 p/cc Temp: 280000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
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