[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 September 17 issued 2330 UT on 03 Sep 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 4 09:30:17 EST 2017 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 SEPTEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 SEPTEMBER - 06 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Sep: 120/72


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Sep             05 Sep             06 Sep
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             118/70             116/68

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. Active 
regions 2673(S01E01) and 2674(N15E15) produced several B-class 
and C-class flares over this period. The largest flare was a 
C1.1 at 03/2050UT from active region 2673. This region is quickly 
growing in complexity and has a moderate chance of producing 
an M-class flare with a slight chance of a X-class flare. Expect 
Low to Moderate solar activity for the next three days. No Earth-directed 
CMEs were observed in the available LASCO C2 imagery up to 03/2048UT. 
The solar wind speed ranged from 560 to around 460 km/s during 
the UT day, 03 September. The Btotal for the interplanetary magnetic 
(IMF) field ranged from 4 to 6 nT during this period. Bz component 
of the IMF ranged from +/- 4 nT. Expect the solar wind speed 
to return to and remain at nominal levels for the next three 
days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Sep: Quiet

Estimated Indices 03 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22122201
      Cocos Island         4   12122201
      Darwin               5   22122202
      Townsville           6   22122212
      Learmonth            6   22122302
      Alice Springs        5   22122201
      Norfolk Island       4   22121201
      Culgoora             5   22122211
      Gingin               7   22122312
      Camden               5   22122211
      Canberra             5   22122201
      Launceston          10   23233311
      Hobart               7   23132201    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Sep :
      Casey               16   34333422
      Mawson              24   54234325
      Davis               11   23333312

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gingin              21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            54   (Unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        25
           Planetary             26   4654 2233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Sep     4    Quiet
05 Sep     4    Quiet
06 Sep     4    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at mostly Quiet levels during 
the last 24 hours in the Australian region. Weak sub-storming 
has ended as solar wind returns to nominal levels. Expect geomagnetic 
conditions to remain mostly Quiet for the next three days.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
05 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 Sep    23

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      10
Sep      5
Oct      4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Sep    20    Near predicted monthly values
05 Sep    20    Near predicted monthly values
06 Sep    20    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 35 was issued on 3 
September and is current for 4 Sep only. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) were mostly near predicted monthly values, although there 
were enhancements noted as well, in the Aus/NZ region over the 
last 24 hours. Isolated periods of sporadic E were observed in 
the Australian region. Expect near predicted monthly MUFs in 
the Australian region for the next three days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+08
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.2

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Sep
Speed: 591 km/sec  Density:    4.8 p/cc  Temp:   371000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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