[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 31 August 17 issued 2341 UT on 31 Aug 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 1 09:41:38 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 AUGUST 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 01 SEPTEMBER - 03 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Aug: 92/37
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Sep 02 Sep 03 Sep
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 92/37 92/37 91/36
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
Active regions 2674(N15E55) and 2672(N06W74) produced several
B-class X-ray flares. Expect Very Low to Low solar activity for
the next three days, though there is a slight chance for an M-class
X-ray flare. A 22 degree disappearing solar filament at approximately
N40E56 was reported by Holloman and San Vito Solar Observatories,
however, no Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available
LASCO C2 imagery up to 31/2048UT. The solar wind doubled in speed
going from 350 to 700 km/s over several hours during the UT day,
31 August, due to recurrent a coronal hole (CH) becoming geoeffective.
There was a weak shock observed in the solar wind at 31/0444UT
associated with a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) prior
to the solar wind increase. The solar wind speed peaked at 710
km/s at 31/1215UT and is currently near 600 km/s. The Btotal
for the interplanetary magnetic field went from 5nT to 31nT during
this period and Bz ranged from -/+20 nT. Expect the solar wind
to remain elevated for 01-02 September, and to gradually return
to nominal levels by 03 September.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Aug: Quiet to Minor
Storm
Estimated Indices 31 Aug : A K
Australian Region 23 23455422
Cocos Island 18 23534421
Darwin 19 23544322
Townsville 21 33544422
Learmonth 26 33555332
Alice Springs 24 23555322
Norfolk Island 18 23454321
Culgoora 23 23455422
Gingin 28 23456432
Camden 23 23455422
Canberra 23 23455422
Launceston 33 24466432
Hobart 30 13466422
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Aug :
Casey 23 24633333
Mawson 48 24555566
Davis 40 23643473
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 18 (Quiet)
Canberra 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 25
Planetary 34
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 2220 1012
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Sep 15 Unsettled to Active
02 Sep 12 Unsettled
03 Sep 6 Quiet
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 41 was issued on 29 August and
is current for 31 Aug to 1 Sep. Geomagnetic activity went from
Quiet to Minor Storm levels during the last 24 hours due to effects
of CIR/CH. Note in the SWS magnetometer data a weak (14nT) impulse
was observed at 31/0538UT and the Dst index dipped to just below
-100nT at approximately 31/1130UT. Expect geomagnetic conditions
to remain Unsettled with isolated periods of Active levels at
high latitudes, such as Tasmania, over the next two days and
a return to mostly Quiet conditions on 03 September due to the
influence of the elevated solar wind associated with the geoeffective
coronal hole (CH).
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Aug Fair Fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Sep Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
02 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Possible degraded HF communication between 01-02 September
due to minor geomagnetic storming with possible minor depressions
at higher latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Aug 17
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 10
Aug 6
Sep 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Sep 20 Near predicted monthly values
02 Sep 20 Near predicted monthly values
03 Sep 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies were mostly near predicted
monthly values in the Aus/NZ region over the last 24 hours. Australian
ionosonde stations showed isolated cases of sporadic E in the
Australian region. Note possible degraded HF communication due
to minor geomagnetic storming with possible minor depressions
at higher latitudes, such as Tasmania on 01-02 September. Otherwise
expect near predicted monthly MUFs in the Australian region for
the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.8E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Aug
Speed: 364 km/sec Density: 5.4 p/cc Temp: 21400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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