[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 23 October 17 issued 2344 UT on 23 Oct 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 24 10:44:50 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 OCTOBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 OCTOBER - 26 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Oct: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Oct 25 Oct 26 Oct
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 78/17 77/16
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
There are currently 2 regions on the visible disk, region 2685
(S09E46) and region 2686 (N13E70) and no earthward directed CMEs
were observed in the available LASCO C2 imagery. The solar wind
speed ranged between 349km/s and 413km/s over the UT day and
is currently 355km/s at the time of this report. The north-south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field Bz ranged between
+4/-3nT. Solar wind speed is expected to increase to elevated
levels between 24Oct-26Oct due to the influence of a recurrent
positive polarity coronal hole that extends from the equator
up to the north pole of the sun. Very Low to Low solar activity
is expected for the next 3 days with a slight chance of M-class
flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Oct : A K
Australian Region 4 22122101
Cocos Island 3 21110111
Darwin 5 31121211
Townsville 6 32122201
Learmonth 8 32132212
Alice Springs 4 21122201
Norfolk Island 5 22222102
Culgoora 4 22122101
Gingin 5 21122202
Camden 4 22122101
Canberra 3 21122100
Launceston 7 22233111
Hobart 6 22133101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Oct :
Macquarie Island 4 11033000
Casey 12 34431211
Mawson 13 32231215
Davis 9 32241112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Oct :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 3100 1012
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Oct 25 Active
25 Oct 35 Active to Minor Storm
26 Oct 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 52 was issued on 22 October
and is current for 24-25 Oct. The geomagnetic field for the Australian
region was at Quiet levels for 23Oct. Quiet to Active conditions
are expected for 24Oct with isolated periods of Minor Storm levels
due to the expected onset of coronal hole effects. Active to
Minor Storm levels expected for 25 October and Unsettled to Active
conditions for 26Oct.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Oct Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
25 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor
26 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor
COMMENT: Expect near predicted MUFs for 24Oct. Expect some degradation
in HF Communication (Fair conditions) for 25Oct-26Oct at mid
to high latitudes with notable depressed MUFs due to the onset
of a geomagnetic storm on 24 October.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Oct 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 20
Oct 5
Nov 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Oct 5 Near predicted monthly values
25 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
30%
26 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
30%
COMMENT: Near predicted MUFs to Minor depressions in the Australian
region for 23Oct. Similar conditions are expected for 24 October.
Expect some degradation in MUF's for Northern AUS and Southern
AUS/NZ region and poor ionospheric support for Antarctic regions
on 25Oct-26Oct due to increased geomagnetic activity over this
time.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Oct
Speed: 415 km/sec Density: 5.7 p/cc Temp: 177000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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