[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 October 17 issued 2330 UT on 19 Oct 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 20 10:30:18 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 OCTOBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 OCTOBER - 22 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Oct: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Oct 21 Oct 22 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 78/17 82/23
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 19 October.
The visible solar disk is currently spotless. Expect Very Low
levels of solar activity for the next three days (20-22 October).
No Earthward directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO
C2 imagery up to 19/1800UT. The solar wind increased from 350
to 490 km/s over the past 24 hours and is currently ~470 km/s.
The IMF Btotal ranged between 5-10 nT, while the Bz component
fluctuated between +/-9 nT. Expect the solar wind to remain slightly
elevated today due to a geoeffective coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Oct: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 19 Oct : A K
Australian Region 11 12233422
Cocos Island 6 11113320
Darwin 8 12223322
Townsville 12 12333422
Learmonth 11 22223432
Alice Springs 9 22223322
Culgoora 11 12332422
Gingin 11 22232432
Camden 11 12332422
Canberra 11 12332422
Launceston 13 22333423
Hobart 11 12332422
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Oct :
Macquarie Island 24 12554531
Casey 17 35422323
Mawson 20 53423342
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1111 1102
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Oct 6 Quiet
COMMENT: The magnetic field over Australia ranged from Quiet
to Active levels during the UT day, 19 October due to periods
of negative Bz dipping to -9nT. The Antarctic region was at Quiet
to Active levels with isolated periods of Minor Storm conditions.
Expect mostly Unsettled to Quiet conditions for 20-21 October,
due to effects from a weak negative polarity equatorial coronal
hole, and a return to Quiet conditions on 22 October
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Oct Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Expect near predicted MUFs with minor depressions possible
over the next three days due to very low solar activity levels.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Oct -5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 20
Oct 5
Nov 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Oct -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
21 Oct -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
22 Oct -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: Mostly near predicted MUFs in most of the Australian
region for the UT day, 19 October. Expect near predicted MUFs
for the next three days with a chance of Minor depressions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:41%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Oct
Speed: 386 km/sec Density: 4.7 p/cc Temp: 86800 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
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