[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 October 17 issued 2330 UT on 18 Oct 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 19 10:30:25 EST 2017


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 OCTOBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 OCTOBER - 21 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Oct:  73/9


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Oct             20 Oct             21 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    74/11              78/17              82/23

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 18 October. 
The visible solar disk is currently spotless. Expect Very Low 
levels of solar activity for the next three days (19-21 October). 
No Earthward directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO 
C2 imagery up to 18/1448UT. However two strong CMEs were noted 
on the backside of the Sun via LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 
18/0548UT and 18/0748UT with an associated Type II sweep at 18/0539UT, 
estimated at 1500km/s. The solar wind decreased from 455 to 350 
km/s over the past 24 hours and is currently ~350 km/s. The IMF 
Btotal ranged between 2-6 nT, while the Bz component fluctuated 
between +4/-5 nT. The solar wind is expected to remain near nominal 
levels for the next three days, though there will likely be a 
slight increase on 20-21 October due to a weak recurrent coronal 
hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Oct: Quiet

Estimated Indices 18 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11021011
      Cocos Island         2   01010012
      Darwin               3   11111012
      Townsville           3   11121011
      Learmonth            3   11022012
      Alice Springs        3   11021012
      Culgoora             2   11021011
      Gingin               3   10022022
      Camden               3   11022011
      Canberra             2   11021011
      Launceston           5   12132011
      Hobart               4   11032011    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Oct :
      Macquarie Island     3   01132000
      Casey               11   34321023
      Mawson              17   23221136

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   2112 1101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Oct     6    Quiet
20 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled
21 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: The magnetic field over Australia was at mostly Quiet 
levels during the UT day, 18 October. The Antarctic region was 
at Unsettled to Quiet levels. Expect mostly Quiet conditions 
today and Unsettled to Quiet conditions on 20-21 October due 
to possible effects from a weak negative polarity equatorial 
coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
21 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Expect near predicted MUFs with minor depressions possible 
over the next three days due to very low solar activity levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Oct   -10

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      20
Oct      5
Nov      4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Oct    -5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15%
20 Oct    -5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15%
21 Oct    -5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15%

COMMENT: Near predicted MUFs in most of the Australian region 
with Minor depressions observed during the local day in the Northern 
Australian region for the UT day, 18 October. Expect near predicted 
MUFs for the next three days with a chance of Minor depressions 
during local daytime hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.8E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+09   (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:40%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.1

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Oct
Speed: 476 km/sec  Density:    5.0 p/cc  Temp:   217000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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