[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 October 17 issued 2330 UT on 11 Oct 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 12 10:30:18 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 OCTOBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 OCTOBER - 14 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Oct: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Oct 13 Oct 14 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low for the UT day, 11
October, with no numbered sunspot group on the earthward side
of the solar disk. Expect Very Low levels of solar activity for
the next three days (12-14 October). No Earth directed CMEs were
observed in the available LASCO imagery on UT day 11 October.
The solar winds increased gradually throughout the UT day 11
October, currently varying between 500-550km/s. This increase
was in response to the anticipated arrival of the high speed
streams (HSS) from the Northern Hemisphere coronal hole. The
IMF Bt reached a maximum of 12 nT at 1100UT and is currently
around 10 nT. The Bz component of IMF fluctuated strongly between
+/-10 nT with several extended southward periods. The two days
outlook (12-13) is for the solar winds to be at very high levels
as to the HSS associated with coronal hole is expected to persist
for a few days. During previous rotations, the solar winds associated
with this coronal hole reached mean daily speeds of 720 km/s.
Similar effects are expected in this rotation.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Oct: Quiet to Active
with one isolated Minor Storm period.
Estimated Indices 11 Oct : A K
Australian Region 17 22443433
Townsville 21 23444523
Learmonth 22 23444533
Norfolk Island 12 22333422
Culgoora 17 22443433
Camden 17 22443433
Canberra 12 22333422
Launceston 21 22444533
Hobart 17 22443433
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Oct :
Macquarie Island 35 24655532
Casey 20 34434423
Mawson 51 54634745
Davis 22 34543423
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 12 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 23
Planetary 33
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 2 0001 1012
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Oct 30 Active to Minor Storm
13 Oct 30 Active to Minor Storm
14 Oct 20 Quiet to Active
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 49 was issued on 10 October
and is current for 11-12 Oct. Quiet to Minor Storm conditions
were observed across the Australian region during the UT day,
11 October. The Australian DST index was reached -70 nT around
0900UT. These disturbed conditions were in response to the arrival
of CIR and subsequent CH HSS stream associated with a large recurrent
polar-connected coronal hole. Active to Minor Storm conditions
are expected to persist on 12-13 October, since the HSS from
coronal hole is expected to persist for a few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Oct Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
13 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
14 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF communication conditions may be observed
over the next 24 hours due to increased geomagnetic activity
and low solar ionising radiation.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Oct 22
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 55% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 20
Oct 5
Nov 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Oct 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
13 Oct 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
14 Oct 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Over the last 24 hours, MUFs were mainly near predicted
monthly values across most of the Australian/NZ and Antarctic
Regions. MUFs were enhanced in the Niue Island Region across
the local day and night with slight depressions local dawn. MUFs
are expected to be mainly near monthly predicted values to slightly
depressed for the next three UT days (12-14 October)due low solar
ionising radiation and the aftermath of the observed Active to
Minor Storm conditions on 11 October.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.6E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Oct
Speed: 313 km/sec Density: 8.5 p/cc Temp: 10900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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