[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 October 17 issued 2330 UT on 05 Oct 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 6 10:30:26 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 OCTOBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 OCTOBER - 08 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Oct: 85/27
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Oct 07 Oct 08 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 82/23 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low today (UT day 5 October). Five
B-class and one C1 flares were observed today. The C1 flare from
region 2683 (N13W58) peaked at 1341 UT. There are currently two
sunspot groups (2682 and 2683) on the earthward side of the solar
disk. They are both stable and having simple magnetic configurations
of alpha and beta. No earthward directed CMEs were observed during
the last 24 hours. The solar wind speed showed a gradual increase
from approximately 370 to 450 km/s during the day today. The
IMF Bt varied mostly between 5 and 9 nT today. IMF Bz stayed
negative (up to around -6 nT) during the first two hours of the
day today and then turned positive. Bz stayed predominantly positive
up to around 7 nT until 1800 UT and then showed variations in
the approximate range of +6/-8 nT. There is a good possibility
for the solar wind stream to stay relatively stronger on UT day
6 and possibly 7 October due to the expected influence of a recurrent
negative polarity coronal hole. Very low levels of solar activity
may be expected for the next three days (6 to 8 October) with
chance of C-class flares during this period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 Oct : A K
Australian Region 4 21100123
Cocos Island 3 11100122
Darwin 3 21100112
Townsville 4 21100213
Learmonth 4 21100123
Alice Springs 2 20100112
Norfolk Island 4 22200112
Culgoora 4 20100123
Gingin 4 21100123
Camden 4 20100123
Canberra 3 20100113
Launceston 4 20100123
Hobart 3 20100113
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Oct :
Macquarie Island 2 10100212
Casey 10 33410123
Mawson 26 52201127
Davis 12 33310115
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 12 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 0 1300 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Oct 12 Quiet to unsettled, some active periods possible
07 Oct 10 Quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods possible
08 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet to unsettled levels
across the Australian region on the UT day 5 October. Geomagnetic
activity is expected to be mostly at quiet to unsettled levels
with the possibility of some active periods on 6 October due
to the expected strengthening of solar wind from a negative polarity
recurrent coronal hole. Geomagnetic activity may stay enhanced
to unsettled and possibly active levels on 7 October due to the
effect of the coronal hole. Gradual decline in geomagnetic activity
to unsettled and then quiet levels may be expected through the
UT day 8 October.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Oct Normal Normal Normal
07 Oct Normal Normal Normal
08 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values to enhanced
by 30 % during the UT day 5 October. MUFs may be expected to
stay mostly near monthly predicted values from 6 to 8 October
UT days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Oct 29
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 20
Oct 5
Nov 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Oct 20 Near predicted monthly values
07 Oct 20 Near predicted monthly values
08 Oct 25 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values to enhanced
by 30 % across the Australian/NZ regions during the UT day 5
October. MUF enhancements of up to 25% were observed in the Antarctic
Regions on the day. MUFs in the Aus/NZ region may be expected
to stay mostly near monthly predicted values from 6 to 8 October
UT days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Oct
Speed: 376 km/sec Density: 5.0 p/cc Temp: 141000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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