[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 March 17 issued 2341 UT on 19 Mar 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 20 10:41:48 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 MARCH 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 20 MARCH - 22 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Mar: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Mar 21 Mar 22 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 71/6
COMMENT: Very Low solar activity observed for 19-Mar. No earthward
directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery. The
solar wind speed has been at ambient levels, ranging between
300km/s and 325km/s. The north-south component of the IMF, Bz
ranged between +3nT and -4nT. A large positive polarity coronal
hole, currently located in the centre of the visible disc is
expected to influence the solar wind from late in the UT day
21Mar. Very Low levels of solar activity are expected for the
next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Mar : A K
Australian Region 0 01010000
Cocos Island 0 11000000
Darwin 1 11110000
Townsville 1 11010011
Learmonth 1 01010100
Alice Springs 0 10010000
Norfolk Island 0 00000001
Culgoora - --------
Gingin 0 00000100
Canberra 0 00000000
Launceston 1 01110101
Hobart 0 0100000-
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Mar :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 4 13210111
Mawson 4 01110123
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 1000 0011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Mar 5 Quiet
21 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Mar 16 Active
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Mostly
Quiet conditions are expected for the next 2 days with possible
Unsettled conditions late in the UT day for 21Mar. Unsettled
to Active conditions expected for 22Mar due to expected influence
of a high speed solar wind stream from a recurrent coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions mostly normal. MUF's near predicted monthly
values with occasional minor depressed periods for low-mid latitudes.
Similar conditions are expected for the next 24-36 hours. Increased
geomagnetic activity late on 21Mar resulting in possible depressed
MUFs for mid latitudes and degraded ionospheric support for high
latitudes on 22Mar.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Mar 11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 10
Mar 16
Apr 15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Mar 10 Near predicted monthly values
21 Mar 10 Near predicted monthly values
22 Mar -5 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs across the Australian/NZ region were near predicted
monthly values for the last 24 hours with mild depressions for
some Northern AUS and Equatorial stations. Similar conditions
are expected for the next 2 days. Increased geomagnetic activity
expected late on 21Mar resulting in reduced ionospheric support
for Southern AUS/NZ regions and disturbed conditions for Antarctic
regions 22Mar.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Mar
Speed: 321 km/sec Density: 5.4 p/cc Temp: 15200 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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