[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 March 17 issued 0149 UT on 19 Mar 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 19 12:49:18 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 MARCH 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 19 MARCH - 21 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Mar: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Mar 20 Mar 21 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Very Low solar activity observed over for 18-Mar. No
earthward directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO
imagery. The solar wind speed declined from 335km/s at 00UT to
be ~310km/s at the time of this report. The north south component
of the IMF, Bz ranged between +-3nT and -2nT. Very Low levels
of solar activity are expected for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Mar : A K
Australian Region 0 10000001
Cocos Island 0 10000000
Darwin 0 10000001
Townsville 1 10001011
Learmonth 2 21001001
Alice Springs 0 10000000
Norfolk Island 0 10000001
Culgoora - --------
Gingin 0 10000001
Canberra 0 10000000
Launceston 2 20011002
Hobart 1 10001001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Mar :
Macquarie Island 0 00000001
Casey 5 33220001
Mawson 8 21110005
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 0210 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Mar 5 Quiet
20 Mar 5 Quiet
21 Mar 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Quiet
conditions are expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions mostly normal. MUF's near predicted monthly
values with occasional minor depressed periods for low latitudes
and disturbed ionospheric support observed for high latitudes.
Similar conditions are expected for the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Mar 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 10
Mar 16
Apr 15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Mar 10 Near predicted monthly values
20 Mar 10 Near predicted monthly values
21 Mar 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs across the Australian/NZ region were near predicted
monthly values for the last 24 hours with mild depressions for
some Northern AUS and Equatorial regions. Similar conditions
are expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Mar
Speed: 344 km/sec Density: 5.1 p/cc Temp: 22800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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