[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 March 17 issued 2330 UT on 12 Mar 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Mon Mar 13 10:30:20 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 MARCH 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 13 MARCH - 15 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Mar: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Mar 14 Mar 15 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels over the last
24 hours. No earthward directed CMEs were observed in the available
LASCO imagery. Very low levels of solar activity are expected
for the next 3 UT days (13-15 Mar) with a slight chance for C-class
flares. The solar wind speeds remained slightly enhanced over
the last 24 hours. They fluctuated between 410 km/s and 430 km/s
for the first half of the day, then started to decline at around
12/1600 UT. They are currently around 350 km/s. The IMF Bt decreased
over the last 24 hours, starting at around 7 nT and currently
around 1.5 nT. The Bz component was predominantly southward.
It reached a minimum of -6.1 nT at 11/2358 UT but varied for
most of the day between -4 nT and +1 nT. Solar wind speeds are
expected to remain at nominal levels for most of 13 Mar. An extension
of the positive northern polar coronal hole may start strengthening
the solar wind stream from late on 13 Mar.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 12 Mar : A K
Australian Region 4 12013110
Cocos Island 2 12011100
Darwin 3 22112001
Townsville 5 22113111
Learmonth 5 22113210
Alice Springs 3 12013010
Norfolk Island 3 12013000
Culgoora 4 12013110
Gingin 5 22003220
Canberra 3 12013000
Launceston 5 22113111
Hobart 4 12113100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Mar :
Macquarie Island 6 22214100
Casey 12 33423212
Mawson 26 54322355
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 1011 0014
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled with isolated Active periods
14 Mar 12 Unsettled to Active
15 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity across the Australian region
on UT day 12 Mar was at Quiet to Unsettled levels. The Antarctic
region experienced Quiet to Active levels with isolated Storm
periods. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be Quiet to Unsettled
for most of 13 Mar. High speed winds from a coronal hole are
expected to arrive late on 13 Mar which may result in Unsettled
to Active conditions late on 13 Mar and during 14 Mar, then Quiet
to Unsettled on 15 Mar.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in
HF conditions may occur in high latitude regions as geomagnetic
conditions may experience Unsettled activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Mar 11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 10
Mar 16
Apr 15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Mar 15 Near predicted monthly values
14 Mar 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
15 Mar 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
COMMENT: MUFs across most of the Australian region were near
predicted monthly values for the UT day 12 Mar. Mostly near predicted
monthly MUFs are expected over the Australian region for the
UT day 13 Mar.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Mar
Speed: 397 km/sec Density: 5.0 p/cc Temp: 49800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list