[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 June 17 issued 2330 UT on 29 Jun 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 30 09:30:28 EST 2017


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 JUNE 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 30 JUNE - 02 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jun:  72/8


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Jun             01 Jul             02 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               72/8

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
The solar wind speed declined gradually over the UT day, from 
460 km/s to be 380 km/s at the time of this report. The Bz component 
of the interplanetary magnetic field stayed mostly close to the 
normal value, but turned south up to ~5 nT between 0300 UT and 
0800 UT. Solar wind speed is expected to be mildly enhanced on 
30 June due to the influence of a small positive polarity coronal 
hole. Very Low solar activity is expected for the next 3 days 
with a small chance of C-class flares.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 29 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   12210001
      Cocos Island         2   11210000
      Darwin               2   02210001
      Townsville           2   12210001
      Learmonth            3   02220001
      Alice Springs        2   02210001
      Norfolk Island       3   22210000
      Gingin               2   01210001
      Camden               2   12210001
      Canberra             1   01110000
      Launceston           3   12220002
      Hobart               2   01210001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     3   01130001
      Casey                5   23220011
      Mawson              16   22441144

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          25   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              29   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            28   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   1212 1011     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Jun     6    Quiet to Unsettled
01 Jul     4    Quiet
02 Jul     4    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed over the last 24 hours. 
Nearly similar levels of geomagnetic activity may be expected 
for the next three days (30 June to 2 July) with some possibility 
of unsettled periods on 30 June due to the influence of a small 
positive polarity coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
01 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
02 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Observed MUF's were mostly near predicted monthly values 
over the last 24 hours. Notable enhancements were observed for 
some high latitude regions. Mostly normal MUFs and HF conditions 
may be expected for the next three days (30 June to 2 July).

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Jun     8

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
      Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      10
Jun      10
Jul      9

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Jun     5    Near predicted monthly values
01 Jul     8    Near predicted monthly values
02 Jul     8    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Observed MUF's were mostly near predicted monthly values 
over the last 24 hours in the Aus/NZ regions. Notable enhancements 
were observed for Southern Aus/NZ regions. Mostly normal MUFs 
and HF conditions may be expected for the next three days (30 
June to 2 July) in this region.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.2

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jun
Speed: 444 km/sec  Density:    5.1 p/cc  Temp:   171000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.




More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list