[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 June 17 issued 2339 UT on 28 Jun 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 29 09:39:03 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 JUNE 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 29 JUNE - 01 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jun: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Jun 30 Jun 01 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery.
Region 2664 (N18W32) is currently the only region on the visible
disc, remains quiet and has reduced in overall spot area. The
solar wind speed declined gradually over the UT day, from 475km/s
at 00UT to be 425km/s at the time of this report. The Bz component
of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between +/-2nT. Solar
wind speed is expected to be mildly enhanced 29Jun-30Jun due
to the influence of a small equatorially located positive polarity
coronal hole. Very Low solar activity is expected for the next
3 days with a small chance of C-class flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Jun : A K
Australian Region 3 12220000
Cocos Island 2 12110000
Darwin 2 21210001
Townsville 3 22220001
Learmonth 3 12220000
Alice Springs 2 11210000
Norfolk Island 2 22110000
Culgoora 4 11220---
Gingin 3 21220000
Camden 3 12220001
Canberra 1 11110000
Launceston 3 22220000
Hobart 2 11120000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Jun :
Macquarie Island 2 10130000
Casey 6 23321100
Mawson 5 23222001
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 2211 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled
30 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Jul 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Quiet
with possible Unsettled periods expected on 29Jun-30Jun due to
the influence of a small equatorially located positive polarity
coronal hole. Quiet conditions expected for 01Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUF's near predicted monthly values for low to mid latitudes.
Disturbed ionospheric support at times for high latitudes. Mild
MUF depressions possible for mid to high latitudes 29Jun-30Jun.
Mostly normal HF conditions expected for 01Jul.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Jun 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 10
Jun 10
Jul 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Jun 0 Near predicted monthly values
30 Jun 0 Near predicted monthly values
01 Jul 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Observed MUF's near predicted monthly values over the
last 24 hours. Notable enhancements for Southern AUS/NZ regions
during the local dawn, depressions during local day for SWS Niue
Is. station and disturbed conditions for Antarctic regions. Depressed
MUF's possible for Southern AUS/NZ regions 29Jun-30Jun due to
minor geomagnetic activity. MUFs Near predicted monthly values
01Jul.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jun
Speed: 471 km/sec Density: 4.9 p/cc Temp: 209000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
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