[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 July 17 issued 2331 UT on 15 Jul 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 16 09:31:07 EST 2017


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 JULY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 16 JULY - 18 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jul:  92/37


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Jul             17 Jul             18 Jul
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN    92/37              92/37              90/34

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for the UT day, 15 Jul, with 
several C-class flares from active region 2665(S06W57), the largest 
was a C5.8 peaking at 1936UT. This region maintains high flare 
potential. Expect Low solar activity with a chance of an M-class 
flare over the next three days. No CMEs observed using LASCO 
imagery for 15 Jul up to 1412UT. The grater then 10 Mev proton 
event which started yesterday is in decline. The solar wind speed 
decreased from 375 to near 320km/s over the last 24 hours. The 
Interplanetary Magnetic Field Bz component fluctuated between 
-3/+2nT over the last 24 hours and B total varied between 3-5nT. 
The 14 Jul CME is expected to hit Earth late today, 16 Jul. Expect 
the solar wind speed to remain at nominal levels until expected 
arrival of CME, then expect a step up in solar wind speed.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 15 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11010010
      Darwin               1   11010011
      Townsville           1   11010011
      Learmonth            1   01010100
      Alice Springs        0   10000001
      Norfolk Island       1   12100000
      Gingin               1   00100110
      Camden               1   11010011
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Launceston           1   01010110
      Hobart               0   00000100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                4   11121221
      Mawson               7   22111124

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   1100 1101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Jul    30    Quiet to Minor Storm
17 Jul    40    Active to Minor Storm with possible Major Storm 
                periods
18 Jul    20    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 34 was issued on 15 July and 
is current for 16-17 Jul. Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels 
for the UT day, 15 Jul. Expect geomagnetic activity to remain 
at Quiet levels until expected arrival of CME late today, 16 
Jul (Monday morning AEST), when activity is expected to increase 
to Active to Minor Storm levels and at times could reach Major 
Storm levels. A favourable IMF Bz may lead to aurora sightings 
from Southernmost Australian regions tonight, 16 Jul should the 
CME arrive earlier than anticipated.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0855UT 14/07, Ended at 1135UT 14/07
 and, 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1235UT 14/07, Ended at 1340UT 14/07
 and, 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1425UT 14/07, Ended at 1510UT 14/07
 and, 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1705UT 14/07, Ended at 1730UT 14/07
 and, 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1800UT 14/07, Ended at 1840UT 14/07
 and, 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1940UT 14/07, Ended at 1105UT 15/07

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
17 Jul      Normal-fair    Fair-normal    Fair-poor
18 Jul      Normal-fair    Fair-normal    Fair-poor

COMMENT: MUFs mostly near predicted monthly values today, 16 
Jul. Depressed MUF's possible for Southern AUS/NZ regions and 
disturbed ionospheric support Antarctic regions 17Jul-18Jul due 
to anticipated increased geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Jul    13

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      9
Jul      8
Aug      7

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Jul    10    Near predicted monthly values
17 Jul     0    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
18 Jul     0    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%

COMMENT: Australian observed MUFs were mostly near predicted 
monthly values over the last 24 hours. Noted Spread F in the 
Australian region and isolated pockets of Sporadic E during the 
UT day. Depressed MUF's possible for Southern AUS/NZ regions 
and disturbed ionospheric support Antarctic regions 17Jul-18Jul 
due to anticipated increased geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.0E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  7.4E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.6

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jul
Speed: 368 km/sec  Density:    4.8 p/cc  Temp:    76000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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