[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 July 17 issued 2330 UT on 13 Jul 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 14 09:30:18 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 JULY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 14 JULY - 16 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jul: 92/37
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Jul 15 Jul 16 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 92/37 92/37 92/37
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. Three
C-class and several B-class X-ray flares were observed during
this period, the largest being a C8.4 flare that peaked at 2005
UT. The solar wind speed gradually decreased from 450 km/s to
390 km/s during the UT day today (13 July). The north-south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field Bz varied mostly between
+/-3 nT, whereas Bt stayed between 2 and 4 nT during this time.
Due to the possible influence of a small coronal hole, solar
wind stream may gain some strength on 14 July and then gradually
weaken through 15 July. Very low levels of solar activity with
the possibility of some C-class events may be expected for the
next 3 days (14 to 16 July). Slight possibility of M-class activity
during this period can not be ruled out too.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Jul : A K
Australian Region 1 01001001
Darwin 1 11001001
Townsville 2 11011011
Learmonth 1 01101000
Alice Springs 0 01000001
Norfolk Island 0 1100000-
Gingin 1 01101010
Camden 2 11111001
Canberra 0 00000000
Launceston 1 01001011
Hobart 0 00001000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00002000
Casey 3 12201011
Mawson 8 22211124
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 2100 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Jul 10 Quiet to Active
15 Jul 12 Quiet to active
16 Jul 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions have been observed during
the last 24 hours in the Australian region. Some rise in geomagnetic
activity may be expected on 14 and 15 July due to the effect
of a small coronal hole. Geomagnetic activity may be expected
to return to quiet levels on 16 July.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Jul Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
16 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Observed MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values
with minor to mild enhancements in some high latitude regions
and periods of minor depressions in some low latitude areas on
13 July. MUFs may be expected to stay near predicted monthly
values for the next three days (14 to 16 July) with the possibility
of minor to mild depressions on 14 and 15 July.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Jul 13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 9
Jul 8
Aug 7
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Jul 15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
15 Jul 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
16 Jul 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: In Australian/NZ regions observed MUFs were mostly near
predicted monthly values with minor to mild enhancements in the
Southern regions and periods of minor depressions in some Northern
areas on 13 July. MUFs in Australian/NZ regions may be expected
to stay near predicted monthly values for the next three days
(14 to 16 July) with the possibility of minor to mild depressions
on 14 and 15 July.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jul
Speed: 503 km/sec Density: 5.0 p/cc Temp: 217000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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