[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 July 17 issued 2330 UT on 12 Jul 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 13 09:30:21 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 JULY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 13 JULY - 15 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jul: 90/34
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Jul 14 Jul 15 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
No Earthward bound CMEs were observed from the LASCO C2 imagery
up to 12/2100 UT. The solar wind speed gradually decreased from
540 km/s to 460 km/s during the UT day today (12 July). The north-south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field Bz varied mostly
between +/-3 nT, whereas Bt stayed between 3 and 4 nT during
this time. Expect the solar wind to gradually decrease through
13 July. Due to the possible influence of a small coronal hole,
solar wind stream may gain some strength on 14 July and then
gradually weaken through 15 July. Low levels of solar activity
with some possibility of isolated M-class event may be expected
for the next 3 days (13 to 15 July).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Jul : A K
Australian Region 1 11101100
Darwin 2 1110----
Townsville 3 11211111
Learmonth 3 1120----
Alice Springs 2 1110----
Norfolk Island 0 10000100
Gingin 3 111-----
Camden 2 11111110
Canberra 0 00100000
Launceston 1 01111100
Hobart 1 01111100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 0000----
Casey 8 2321----
Mawson 15 4331----
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8 2331 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Jul 6 Quiet
14 Jul 10 Unsettled to Active
15 Jul 12 Quiet to Active
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions have been observed during
the last 24 hours in the Australian. Nearly similar conditions
may be expected on 13 July. Some rise in geomagnetic activity
may be expected on 14 and 15 July due to the effect of a coronal
hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jul Normal Normal Normal
14 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Jul Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Observed MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values
with some enhancements in some high latitude regions on 12 July.
Expect MUFs to remain near predicted monthly values for the next
three days (13 to 15 July) with the possibility of some depressions
on 14 and 15 July.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Jul 12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 9
Jul 8
Aug 7
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Jul 18 Near predicted monthly values
14 Jul 15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
15 Jul 15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
COMMENT: In Australian regions observed MUFs were mostly near
predicted monthly values with some enhancements in the Southern
regions on 12 July. Expect MUFs in Australian/NZ regions to remain
near predicted monthly values for the next three days (13 to
15 July) with the possibility of some depressions on 14 and 15
July.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: NA
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jul
Speed: 605 km/sec Density: 5.1 p/cc Temp: 484000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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