[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 July 17 issued 2330 UT on 10 Jul 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 11 09:30:18 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 JULY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 11 JULY - 13 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jul: 95/41
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Jul 12 Jul 13 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with a
C1 class X-ray flare at 10/031 UT and some B-class flares due
to active region 2665 (S06E19). No Earthward bound CMEs were
observed from LASCO C2 imagery up to 10/2000 UT. The solar wind
speed increased from 525 km/s to 630 km/s by ~0700 UT and then
gradually decreased to around 575 by 2300 UT. The north-south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field Bz ranged mostly
between +/-5 nT during this period. Expect the solar wind to
remain elevated at this level today, 11 July, and to gradually
decrease over the following two days due to the influence of
a geoeffective equatorial positive polarity coronal hole. Low
levels of solar activity with some possibility of isolated M-class
event may be expected for the next 3 days (11, 12 and 13 July).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 10 Jul : A K
Australian Region 6 33210111
Cocos Island - --------
Darwin 6 33210112
Townsville 6 33210112
Learmonth 6 33220111
Alice Springs 5 33210101
Norfolk Island 4 23110011
Gingin 5 33210110
Camden 6 33211111
Canberra 2 22100000
Launceston 6 33211111
Hobart 4 32111101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Jul :
Macquarie Island 5 33111001
Casey 11 43321113
Mawson 16 45431211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 3 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 46 (Unsettled)
Canberra 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 26
Planetary 26 5325 2354
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Jul 12 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
13 Jul 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions have been observed during
the last 24 hours in the Australian region due to high speed
solar wind stream. Expect geomagnetic activity to remain at Unsettled
levels with the possibility of isolated periods of Active levels
today (11 July), particularly at high latitudes. Geomagnetic
conditions may be expected to gradually decline to Unsettled
to Quiet levels over the following two days (12 and 13 July).
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jul Normal Normal Normal
12 Jul Normal Normal Normal
13 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values with
some enhancements in high latitude regions on 10 July. Expect
MUFs to remain near predicted monthly values for the next three
days (11 to 13 July) with the possibility of some enhancements
on 12 and 13 July.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Jul 19
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 9
Jul 8
Aug 7
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Jul 18 Near predicted monthly values
12 Jul 20 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 5 to
15%
13 Jul 25 Near predicted monthly values to enhance 10 to
20%
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 32 was issued on 9
July and is current for 10-12 Jul. Australian observed MUFs were
mostly near predicted monthly values with some enhancements in
the Southern regions on 10 July. Expect MUFs in Australian/NZ
regions to remain near predicted monthly values for the next
three days (11 to 13 July) with the possibility of some enhancements
on 12 and 13 July.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.00E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jul
Speed: 497 km/sec Density: 9.4 p/cc Temp: 255000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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