[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 July 17 issued 2330 UT on 09 Jul 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 10 09:30:19 EST 2017 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 JULY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 10 JULY - 12 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jul:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/2N    0318UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jul:  91/36


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Jul             11 Jul             12 Jul
Activity     Low to Moderate    Low to Moderate    Low to Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN    92/37              92/37              92/37

COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate over the last 24 hours with 
an M1.3 class X-ray flare at 09/0318UT and several B- and C-class 
flares due to active region 2665 (S08E28). Two sunspot groups 
on the visible solar disc. Noise storm in progress on 245 MHz. Expect 
Low to Moderate solar activity for the next three days. No Earthward 
bound CMEs observed from LASCO C2 imagery up to 09/1624UT. The 
solar wind speed increased from 360km/s to 580km/s over the last 
24 hours and is currently 540km/s. CIR preceding expected coronal 
hole was associated with a weak shock at 08/2304UT. The north-south 
component of the interplanetary magnetic field Bz ranged from 
+/-11 nT during this same period and Btotal varied between 6 
to 15 nT. Expect the solar wind to remain elevated at this level 
today, 10 July, and to gradually decrease over the following 
two days due to the influence of a geoeffective equatorial positive 
polarity coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jul: Unsettled to 
Minor Storm

Estimated Indices 09 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region      13   33242332
      Cocos Island        11   33232---
      Darwin              16   43342332
      Townsville          16   43342332
      Learmonth           16   43242432
      Alice Springs       13   33242332
      Norfolk Island       9   33231221
      Gingin              15   43232432
      Camden              13   33242332
      Canberra             9   32231322
      Launceston          17   33252432
      Hobart              13   33241332    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Jul :
      Macquarie Island    21   22163334
      Casey               20   34332444
      Mawson              47   76244454

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra            11   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        22
           Planetary             29                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   1000 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Jul    14    Unsettled to Active
11 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled
12 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Unsettled to Minor Storm conditions observed during 
the last 24 hours in the Australian region due to high speed 
solar wind stream. Expect geomagnetic activity to remain at Unsettled 
levels with isolated periods of Active to Minor Storm levels 
today, particularly at high latitudes. Mostly Unsettled conditions 
are expected to prevail over the following two days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Jul      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor      

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Jul      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-poor
11 Jul      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-poor
12 Jul      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-poor

COMMENT: Expect possible degraded HF communication at high latitudes 
on 10-12 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 Jul    16

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      9
Jul      8
Aug      7

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Jul    20    Near predicted monthly values
11 Jul    15    Near predicted monthly values
12 Jul    15    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Australian observed MUFs were mostly near predicted 
monthly values during the local day time hours with enhancements 
observed during local night time hours for the UT day, 09 July. 
Expect near predicted monthly values for the next three days, 
however possible degraded HF communication at higher latitudes 
through 10-12 July. Noted spread F in the Australian region during 
local night time hours and isolated pockets of sporadic E during 
the UT day.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.8E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.7

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jul
Speed: 341 km/sec  Density:    4.3 p/cc  Temp:    23600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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