[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 January 17 issued 2330 UT on 30 Jan 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Tue Jan 31 10:30:28 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 JANUARY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 31 JANUARY - 02 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jan: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Jan 01 Feb 02 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 76/14 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: The solar activity was at Very Low levels during the
UT day 30 Jan. Very Low solar activity is expected for the next
3 days with a slight chance of C-class flares. No Earth directed
CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery. The solar
wind speed remained around 450Km/s up to 1200 UT, then increased
to a peak value of 550 km/s at 1750 UT, and slightly decreased,
currently at 450 km/s. The IMF Bt remained around 5 nT then jumped
to 10 nT ~1200UT most lively due to Co-rotating Interaction Region
(CIR) associated with a coronal hole. The Bz component varied
between +/-5 nT without prolonged southward periods. The solar
wind speed is expected to remain enhanced in response to the
high speed streams from the coronal hole. The speed may reach
values ~700 km/s.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Jan : A K
Australian Region 5 11212212
Cocos Island 4 11212111
Darwin 4 11112212
Townsville 6 12213212
Alice Springs 5 11212212
Norfolk Island 5 11112222
Gingin 5 11212222
Camden 5 12212212
Canberra 3 01112211
Launceston 7 22222312
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Jan :
Macquarie Island 6 01112411
Casey 20 25532323
Mawson 14 33313324
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 2211 1110
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Jan 25 Quiet to Active with possible Minor Storm levels.
01 Feb 20 Quiet to Active with possible Minor Storm levels.
02 Feb 15 Quiet to Active.
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly Quiet over the Australian
region and reached active to minor storm levels in the Antarctic
region on UT day 30 Jan. Geomagnetic conditions are expected
to become disturbed over the next three days (31 Jan- 2 Feb)and
may reach active to minor storm levels in response to the anticipated
arrival of high speed streams associated with a relatively large
recurrent coronal hole. Auroras may be visible on the local nights
of 31 Jan and 1 Feb in Tasmania.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Jan Normal-fair Fair-poor Fair-poor
01 Feb Normal-fair Fair-poor Fair-poor
02 Feb Normal-fair Fair-poor Fair-poor
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions are expected over the next 3
days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Jan -6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 2
Jan 21
Feb 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Jan -15 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
01 Feb -15 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
02 Feb -10 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressed MUFs observed for Northern AUS and Southern
AUS/NZ regions over the last 24 hours. Variable ionospheric support
for Equatorial regions. On 31 Jan-02 Feb more depressed MUFs
are expected as a result of the expected increase in the geomagnetic
activity. HF users are advised to use lower than the monthly
predicted frequencies.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jan
Speed: 449 km/sec Density: 6.0 p/cc Temp: 161000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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