[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 January 17 issued 2348 UT on 29 Jan 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 30 10:48:31 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 JANUARY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 30 JANUARY - 01 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jan: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Jan 31 Jan 01 Feb
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 76/14 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
There was an associated CME from yesterdays C2.8 flare from region
2627 (on the west limb) and analysis indicates there was no earth
directed component. The solar wind speed ranged ~480km/s to ~420km/s
over the UT day. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) ranged
between +3nT and -4nT. Solar wind speed is expected to remain
at current levels for the next 24-36hrs. From mid way through
31Jan solar wind speed is expected to increase due to the influence
of a high speed solar wind stream from a southern hemisphere
located negative polarity coronal hole. Solar activity is expected
to be Very Low to Low for the next 3 days with just the chance
of C-class flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Jan : A K
Australian Region 4 21112211
Cocos Island 3 21112100
Darwin 3 11102211
Townsville 6 21113212
Alice Springs 4 11112211
Norfolk Island 4 11102122
Gingin 4 21112210
Camden 5 22112211
Canberra 2 11102110
Launceston 6 22212221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Jan :
Macquarie Island 4 12222110
Casey 16 35432221
Mawson 15 44323322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 3310 1012
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
31 Jan 24 Active
01 Feb 22 Active
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Mostly
Quiet conditions are expected for 30Jan. Solar wind speed is
expected to increase on 31Jan due to the influence of a high
speed solar wind stream from an southern hemisphere located negative
polarity coronal hole. Elevated solar wind speeds are expected
to continue into 01Feb resulting in Active conditions on these
days with possible Minor Storm periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
31 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
01 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor
COMMENT: Mildly depressed MUF's observed for low to mid latitudes
for 29 January and disturbed ionospheric support for high latitudes.
Similar conditions are expected for 30Jan. Variable conditions
expected for 31Jan-01Feb ranging from possible enhancements to
depressed MUFs for low to mid latitudes and poor ionospheric
support for high latitudes due to expected increase in geomagnetic
activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Jan 2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 2
Jan 21
Feb 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Jan 5 Near predicted monthly values
31 Jan -10 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
01 Feb -15 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 12 was issued on 29 January
and is current for 29-30 Jan. Depressed MUFs observed for Northern
AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions over the last 24 hours. Variable
ionospheric support for Equatorial regions and poor conditions
for Antarctic regions. Similar conditions are expected for the
next 24 hours. Chance of possible isolated enhancements as well
as MUF depressions of ~30% for Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ
regions and disturbed ionospheric support for Antarctic regions
from mid way through the UT day on 31Jan. Depressed MUFs for
low to mid latitude stations and disturbed ionospheric support
for high latitudes expected on 01Feb due to increased geomagnetic
activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jan
Speed: 525 km/sec Density: 8.0 p/cc Temp: 313000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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