[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 January 17 issued 2330 UT on 26 Jan 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Fri Jan 27 10:30:28 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 JANUARY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 27 JANUARY - 29 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jan: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Jan 28 Jan 29 Jan
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 82/23 82/23
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery.
Solar activity is expected to be Very Low to Low for the next
3 UT days with a chance of C-class flares. The solar wind speed
and interplanetary magnetic field Bt were near their background
levels 340-350 km/s and Bt = 5-6 nT up to 0711 UT, when a weak
interplanetary shock was detected. Just after the shock the solar
wind speed and interplanetary magnetic field were 360 km/s and
10 nT, respectively. A significant increase in the solar wind
speed was observed since 1340 UT, its maximum value is 570 km/s.
After the shock, Bt ranged between 10 and 15 nT and its north-south
component Bz varied between -9 nT and 12 nT. There were two notable
periods with negative Bz, 1100-1243 UT and 1550-1655 UT. The
solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated during the next
2 UT days, 27-28 January, due to the influence of a high speed
solar wind stream from a recurrent equatorial coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 26 Jan : A K
Australian Region 10 10323333
Cocos Island 9 10323332
Darwin 9 10323332
Townsville 10 10323333
Learmonth 6 10322---
Alice Springs 11 11323333
Norfolk Island 9 00323233
Gingin 11 20323333
Camden 11 11323333
Canberra 8 00323232
Launceston 15 11434333
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Jan :
Macquarie Island 19 00235452
Casey 19 34433343
Mawson 29 22323473
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1212 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Jan 15 Unsettled to Active
28 Jan 15 Unsettled to Active
29 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled for the
Australian region over the last 24 hours. In the SWS magnetometer
data for 26 Jan, a weak (20 nT) impulse was observed at 0816
UT; this impulse is associated with a weak interplanetary shock
wave detected in the solar wind at 0711 UT. For the next 2 days
Unsettled to Active conditions are expected due to coronal hole
effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
28 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
29 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
COMMENT: Occasional MUF depressions and enhancements observed
for low to mid latitudes for 26 January. Over the next 3 UT days
more degraded HF conditions are expected due to increased geomagnetic
activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Jan 9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 2
Jan 21
Feb 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Jan 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
28 Jan 0 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
29 Jan 0 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable ionospheric support observed over the last
24 hours for AUS/NZ regions with both near predicted monthly
values and notable depressions. Depressed MUF's of ~20% expected
for AUS/NZ regions for 27-29 Jan and with disturbed ionospheric
support for Antarctic regions due to increased geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jan
Speed: 342 km/sec Density: 5.4 p/cc Temp: 29700 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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