[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 January 17 issued 2339 UT on 25 Jan 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Thu Jan 26 10:39:19 EST 2017

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 JANUARY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 26 JANUARY - 28 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jan:  85/27

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Jan             27 Jan             28 Jan
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery. 
New region 2629 (N15E48) has developed quickly and was the source 
of numerous B-class flares, the largest being a B8.5 at 2128UT. 
The solar wind speed ranged between 315km/s to 370km/s over the 
UT day while the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) ranged 
between +/-6nT without any sustained southward periods. Solar 
wind parameters remain at ambient levels and are expected to 
continue for the next 36-48hrs after which an expected increase 
in solar wind speed is due to the influence of a high speed solar 
wind stream from a recurrent equatorial located positive polarity 
coronal hole. Solar activity is expected to be Very Low to Low 
for the next 3 days with the chance of C-class flares.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 25 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   22120001
      Cocos Island         1   22000000
      Darwin               2   22110001
      Townsville           4   22121012
      Learmonth            2   21020000
      Alice Springs        3   22120000
      Norfolk Island       3   22110012
      Gingin               3   21120002
      Camden               4   22121011
      Canberra             2   21110001
      Launceston           6   32221012
      Hobart               6   322200--    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     2   22110000
      Casey               12   44331012
      Mawson              11   34222014

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              2   1000 0101     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Jan     4    Quiet
27 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled
28 Jan    15    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet for the Australian 
region over the last 24 hours. Mostly Quiet conditions are expected 
for the next 2 days with Unsettled to Active conditions for 28Jan 
due to coronal hole effects

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
27 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-poor
28 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-poor

COMMENT: Occasional MUF depressions and enhancements observed 
for low to mid latitudes for 25Jan. Similar variable ionospheric 
support is expected over the next 3 days.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
25 Jan    13

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      2
Jan      21
Feb      20

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Jan    10    Near predicted monthly values
27 Jan    10    Near predicted monthly values
28 Jan     0    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Variable ionospheric support observed over the last 
24 hours for AUS/NZ regions with both notable depressions and 
enhancements. Similar conditions are expected for the next 2 
days. Depressed MUF's of ~20% expected for Northern AUS and Southern 
AUS/NZ regions for 28Jan and with disturbed ionospheric support 
for Antarctic regions due to increased geomagnetic activity.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jan
Speed: 377 km/sec  Density:    1.4 p/cc  Temp:    20300 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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