[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 January 17 issued 2330 UT on 18 Jan 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Thu Jan 19 10:30:23 EST 2017


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 JANUARY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 19 JANUARY - 21 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jan:  79/19


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Jan             20 Jan             21 Jan
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    78/17              78/17              78/17

COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was very low. 
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery. 
Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next 3 days 
19-21 Jan, with a chance of C-class flares. The solar wind speed 
started increasing just before the start of the UT day 18 Jan 
due to coronal hole effects, starting at 305 km/s and peaking 
at 632 km/s at 18/1510 UT. It is currently around 540 km/s. The 
IMF total strength peaked at 18 nT around 18/0600 UT, currently 
7 nT. The Bz component varied between -13 to 15 nT, currently 
around 3 nT. Solar wind speeds are expected to remain enhanced 
on 19 Jan.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 18 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region      11   13333322
      Cocos Island         8   03223321
      Darwin              12   23333322
      Townsville          13   23334322
      Learmonth           14   23334332
      Alice Springs       11   13333322
      Norfolk Island      11   13333232
      Gingin              14   13334332
      Camden              10   13323322
      Canberra             9   03323222
      Launceston          16   14433333
      Hobart              10   04323222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Jan :
      Macquarie Island    18   03345431
      Casey               32   36643333
      Mawson              44   24435376

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   0000 1101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Jan    20    Unsettled to Active
20 Jan    18    Unsettled to Active
21 Jan    18    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 3 was issued on 15 January and 
is current for 18-19 Jan. Magnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled 
with some Active periods in the Australian region on 18-Jan. 
The geomagnetic activity was due to the arrival of high speed 
winds from a mid-latitude coronal hole. Conditions are expected 
to be Unsettled on 19-Jan with Active periods and a possible 
Minor Storm. Auroras may be visible during the local night of 
19 January in Tasmania and possibly the coastline of Victoria.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
20 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
21 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Jan    23

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      2
Jan      21
Feb      20

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Jan     0    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                25%
20 Jan     0    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                25%
21 Jan     0    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                25%

COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 6 was issued on 17 January 
and is current for 17-19 Jan. On 18-Jan, MUFs were near predicted 
monthly values in all Australian regions. Cocos Islands enhanced 
MUFs during the local day and the Niue Island region had a minor 
depression of MUFs during the local night. MUF depressions are 
expected on 19-Jan due to increased geomagnetic activity which 
started on 18-Jan.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jan
Speed: 313 km/sec  Density:   11.9 p/cc  Temp:    13100 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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