[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 January 17 issued 2330 UT on 17 Jan 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Wed Jan 18 10:30:25 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 JANUARY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 18 JANUARY - 20 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jan: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Jan 19 Jan 20 Jan
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 79/19 78/17 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was very low.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. Solar activity is expected
to be very low for the next 3 days 18-20 Jan, with a chance of
C-class flares. The solar wind speed varied between 295-325 km/s
over the last 24 hours, currently around 300 km/s. The IMF total
strength varied between 2-6 nT, currently 5 nT. The Bz component
varied between -6 to 2 nT, currently around 1 nT. Solar wind
speed is expected to increase late 18-Jan due to the effects
of a mid-latitude coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 17 Jan : A K
Australian Region 4 11111301
Cocos Island 3 01101301
Darwin 4 21101302
Townsville 5 21101312
Alice Springs 3 11101301
Norfolk Island 1 10101101
Gingin 4 11111311
Camden 3 11211201
Canberra 1 01100200
Launceston 6 22221311
Hobart 3 11111300
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Jan :
Macquarie Island 2 00021200
Casey 12 34421311
Mawson 8 43112211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 1 0000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Jan 18 Quiet to Minor Storm
19 Jan 20 Active to Minor Storm
20 Jan 18 Quiet to Active
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 3 was issued on 15 January and
is current for 18-19 Jan. Magnetic conditions were quiet with
an unsettled period across the Australian region on 17-Jan. The
unsettled period was due to a period of southward Bz between
17/1220 to 17/1520. Conditions are expected to remain quiet until
late on 18-Jan when coronal hole effects are likely to bring
active conditions with periods of minor storms. Auroras may be
visible on the local nights of 18 and 19 January in Tasmania
and possibly the coastline of Victoria.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair
19 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair
20 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Jan 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 2
Jan 21
Feb 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Jan 0 Depressed 15 to 25%/near predicted monthly values
19 Jan -10 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
20 Jan -10 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 6 was issued on 17 January
and is current for 17-19 Jan. On 17-Jan, MUFs were moderately
depressed in Niue Island and the Northern Australian Region during
the local night, and were near predicted monthly values in other
Australian regions. Widespread sporadic-E was observed. Similar
conditions are likely for the next day, 18-Jan. Depressions are
expected across the whole Australian Region on 19-Jan due to
increased geomagnetic activity which is forecast to start late
18-Jan.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jan
Speed: 318 km/sec Density: 8.2 p/cc Temp: 15500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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