[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 January 17 issued 2330 UT on 08 Jan 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Mon Jan 9 10:30:40 EST 2017 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 JANUARY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 09 JANUARY - 11 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Jan:  72/8


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Jan             10 Jan             11 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               72/8

COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels during the 
UT day 8 January. There are no spotted regions on the Sun. Very 
low solar activity is expected for the next 3 UT days (9-11 January). 
No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery. 
The solar wind speed was steady, varying in the range 630-690 
km/s and slowly decreasing on average. The IMF Bt was steady, 
varying in the range 4-6 nT. The Bz component varied between 
-5 and +4 nT without prolong periods with significant southward 
deviations. The solar wind speed is expected to remain enhanced 
on 9 January in response to the high speed streams from the relatively 
large recurrent coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Jan: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 08 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region      11   12243232
      Darwin               0   000--1-0
      Townsville          11   22243232
      Learmonth           12   12243332
      Culgoora            13   13442232
      Camden              17   23253243
      Canberra            10   12242232
      Launceston          18   23353333
      Hobart              13   233431-3    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     -   --------

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Jan : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs       NA
      Gingin              NA
      Canberra            NA
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             16   3322 4423     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled
10 Jan     7    Quiet to Unsettled
11 Jan     7    Quiet

COMMENT: On UT day 8 January geomagnetic activity was mostly 
quiet to unsettled over the Australian region and reached active 
levels for short periods of time. On 9 January geomagnetic conditions 
are expected to become less disturbed. However, there is a chance 
that the conditions may reach active levels due to continuing 
influence of the relatively large recurrent southern hemisphere 
coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Jan      Normal-fair    Fair-normal    Poor-fair      

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair-poor
10 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair-normal
11 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mild to moderate depressions in MUFs were observed predominantly 
in the southern hemisphere on UT day 8 January. On 9-10 similar 
HF conditions are expected. HF users are advised to use lower 
than the monthly predicted frequencies.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Jan   -12

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      2
Jan      21
Feb      20

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Jan    -5    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
10 Jan    -1    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
11 Jan     1    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15%

COMMENT: On the UT day 8 January in the Australian region MUFs 
were depressed by 15% - 20% during local day and after local 
dawn as a result of the recent increase in the geomagnetic activity 
and mostly near monthly predicted values during local night. 
On 9-10 January similar HF conditions are expected, with MUFs 
gradually recovering. HF users are advised to use lower than 
the monthly predicted frequencies.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.60E+08   (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:26%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Jan
Speed: 678 km/sec  Density:    3.3 p/cc  Temp:   164000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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