[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 January 17 issued 2330 UT on 07 Jan 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Sun Jan 8 10:30:47 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 JANUARY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 08 JANUARY - 10 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jan: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels during the
UT day 7 January. There are no spotted regions on the Sun. Very
low solar activity is expected for the next 3 UT days (8-10 January).
No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery.
The solar wind speed was steady, varying in the range 620-740
km/s. The IMF Bt was steady, varying in the range 3-5 nT. The
Bz component varied between -5 and +4 nT. There were two relatively
prolong periods with significant southward deviations, from 06
Jan/2350 UT to 07 Jan/0030 UT and from 7 Jan/1050 UT to 7 Jan/1205
UT. The two periods were accompanied by increases in geomagnetic
activity. The solar wind speed is expected to remain enhanced
on 8 January in response to the high speed streams from the relatively
large recurrent coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jan: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 07 Jan : A K
Australian Region 13 23334322
Townsville 10 22234222
Learmonth 10 22224322
Camden 13 23334322
Canberra 13 25223222
Launceston 16 33334333
Hobart 12 23324232
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Jan :
Macquarie Island - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Jan :
Darwin NA
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs NA
Gingin NA
Canberra NA
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 19
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 18 4432 3233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Jan 14 Unsettled to Active
09 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
10 Jan 7 Quiet
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 2 was issued on 7 January and
is current for 7-8 Jan. On UT day 7 January geomagnetic activity
was mostly quiet to unsettled over the Australian region and
reached active levels for a short period of time. On 8 January
geomagnetic conditions are expected to become less disturbed,
unsettled to active. In the Australian region they may reach
active levels due to influence of the relatively large recurrent
southern hemisphere coronal hole which is still at the geoeffective
location on the solar disk.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jan Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jan Normal-fair Fair-normal Poor-fair
09 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
10 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: The HF conditions were close to normal during the first
half of the UT day 7 January. Mild to moderate depressions in
MUFs were observed predominantly in the southern hemisphere at
the end of the UT day 7 January. On 8-9 January mild to moderate
depressions are expected to be observed predominantly in the
southern hemisphere. HF users are advised to use lower than the
monthly predicted frequencies.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Jan -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 2
Jan 21
Feb 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Jan -5 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
09 Jan -1 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
10 Jan -1 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 2 was issued on 6 January
and is current for 6-8 Jan. On the UT day 7 January in the Australian
region MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted values or depressed
by 15%-25%. On 8-10 January moderately depressed MUFs are expected
as a result of the recent increase in the geomagnetic activity,
then the HF conditions are expected to gradually recover. HF
users are advised to use lower than the monthly predicted frequencies.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jan
Speed: 676 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 157000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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