[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 February 17 issued 2330 UT on 11 Feb 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Sun Feb 12 10:30:55 EST 2017


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 FEBRUARY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 12 FEBRUARY - 14 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Feb:  76/14


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Feb             13 Feb             14 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    76/14              78/17              78/17

COMMENT: The solar activity was at Very Low levels during the 
UT day, 11 February. Very Low solar activity is expected for 
the next three days with a slight chance of C-class flares. No 
Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO C2 imagery up to 10/1900UT. 
The solar wind speed decreased from 460-350 km/s over the last 
24 hours and is expected to remain under 400km/s for the next 
24 hours. The IMF Bt decreased from 5nT to near 1 nT during the 
same period. North-south (Bz) component varied between +2/-3 
nT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Feb: Quiet

Estimated Indices 11 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   21110101
      Cocos Island         1   11110100
      Darwin               2   21110101
      Townsville           3   21110111
      Learmonth            2   21000101
      Alice Springs        2   21100101
      Norfolk Island       2   11100002
      Gingin               2   21100100
      Camden               4   3111-111
      Canberra             0   11000000
      Launceston           2   11110102    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     1   10110001
      Casey                8   33410102
      Mawson              18   53221153

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   1112 2212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Feb     2    Quiet
13 Feb     4    Quiet
14 Feb    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet in the Australian region 
on 11 February. Expect Quiet conditions for the next two days. 
Late on UT day, 14 February, expect an increase in activity to 
Unsettled to Active levels due to a coronal hole becoming geoeffective.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Feb     1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.     
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      0
Feb      18
Mar      16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Feb     5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
13 Feb     5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
14 Feb     5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%

COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted values with periods of minor 
to moderate depressions during the UT day, 11 February. Periods 
of sporadic E were observed in the Australian region over the 
last 24 hours. Expect similar conditions to prevail over the 
next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Feb
Speed: 435 km/sec  Density:    5.7 p/cc  Temp:   170000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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