[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 February 17 issued 2330 UT on 11 Feb 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Sun Feb 12 10:30:55 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 FEBRUARY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 12 FEBRUARY - 14 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Feb: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Feb 13 Feb 14 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 76/14 78/17 78/17
COMMENT: The solar activity was at Very Low levels during the
UT day, 11 February. Very Low solar activity is expected for
the next three days with a slight chance of C-class flares. No
Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO C2 imagery up to 10/1900UT.
The solar wind speed decreased from 460-350 km/s over the last
24 hours and is expected to remain under 400km/s for the next
24 hours. The IMF Bt decreased from 5nT to near 1 nT during the
same period. North-south (Bz) component varied between +2/-3
nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 11 Feb : A K
Australian Region 2 21110101
Cocos Island 1 11110100
Darwin 2 21110101
Townsville 3 21110111
Learmonth 2 21000101
Alice Springs 2 21100101
Norfolk Island 2 11100002
Gingin 2 21100100
Camden 4 3111-111
Canberra 0 11000000
Launceston 2 11110102
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Feb :
Macquarie Island 1 10110001
Casey 8 33410102
Mawson 18 53221153
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 1112 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Feb 2 Quiet
13 Feb 4 Quiet
14 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet in the Australian region
on 11 February. Expect Quiet conditions for the next two days.
Late on UT day, 14 February, expect an increase in activity to
Unsettled to Active levels due to a coronal hole becoming geoeffective.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Feb Normal Normal Normal
13 Feb Normal Normal Normal
14 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Feb 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 0
Feb 18
Mar 16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Feb 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
13 Feb 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
14 Feb 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted values with periods of minor
to moderate depressions during the UT day, 11 February. Periods
of sporadic E were observed in the Australian region over the
last 24 hours. Expect similar conditions to prevail over the
next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Feb
Speed: 435 km/sec Density: 5.7 p/cc Temp: 170000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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