[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 February 17 issued 2330 UT on 10 Feb 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Sat Feb 11 10:30:19 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 FEBRUARY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 11 FEBRUARY - 13 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Feb: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Feb 12 Feb 13 Feb
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 78/17
COMMENT: The solar activity was at Very Low levels during the
UT day 10 February. Very Low to Low solar activity is expected
for the next three days. No Earth directed CMEs were observed
in LASCO C2 imagery up to 10/11736UT. The solar wind speed varied
between 410-460 km/s over the last 24 hours and is expected to
remain in this range or slightly lower. The IMF Bt varied between
4-6 nT during this same period. North-south (Bz) component varied
between +4/-5 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Feb : A K
Australian Region 4 10112212
Cocos Island 2 10111210
Darwin 3 10112112
Townsville 4 11112212
Learmonth 4 10112212
Alice Springs 4 10112212
Norfolk Island 3 10112112
Gingin 5 11112311
Camden 5 10122213
Canberra 3 10112102
Launceston 7 21223212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Feb :
Macquarie Island 7 10034301
Casey 12 34322223
Mawson 20 53222335
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 2111 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Feb 4 Quiet
12 Feb 4 Quiet
13 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet in the Australian region
on 10 February. Expect mostly Quiet conditions for the next three
days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Feb Normal Normal Normal
12 Feb Normal Normal Normal
13 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Feb 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 0
Feb 18
Mar 16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Feb 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
12 Feb 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
13 Feb 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: MUFs were at near predicted values during the UT day,
10 February. Periods of sporadic E observed in the Australian
region over the last 24 hours. Expect mostly near predicted MUFs
for the next three days with possible periods of Minor depressions
and periods of sporadic E to continue in the Australian region.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:22%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Feb
Speed: 432 km/sec Density: 7.3 p/cc Temp: 151000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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