[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 February 17 issued 2330 UT on 10 Feb 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Sat Feb 11 10:30:19 EST 2017


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 FEBRUARY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 11 FEBRUARY - 13 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Feb:  74/11


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Feb             12 Feb             13 Feb
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              78/17

COMMENT: The solar activity was at Very Low levels during the 
UT day 10 February. Very Low to Low solar activity is expected 
for the next three days. No Earth directed CMEs were observed 
in LASCO C2 imagery up to 10/11736UT. The solar wind speed varied 
between 410-460 km/s over the last 24 hours and is expected to 
remain in this range or slightly lower. The IMF Bt varied between 
4-6 nT during this same period. North-south (Bz) component varied 
between +4/-5 nT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Feb: Quiet

Estimated Indices 10 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   10112212
      Cocos Island         2   10111210
      Darwin               3   10112112
      Townsville           4   11112212
      Learmonth            4   10112212
      Alice Springs        4   10112212
      Norfolk Island       3   10112112
      Gingin               5   11112311
      Camden               5   10122213
      Canberra             3   10112102
      Launceston           7   21223212    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     7   10034301
      Casey               12   34322223
      Mawson              20   53222335

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   2111 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Feb     4    Quiet
12 Feb     4    Quiet
13 Feb    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet in the Australian region 
on 10 February. Expect mostly Quiet conditions for the next three 
days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Feb     8

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      0
Feb      18
Mar      16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Feb    10    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15%
12 Feb    10    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15%
13 Feb    10    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15%

COMMENT: MUFs were at near predicted values during the UT day, 
10 February. Periods of sporadic E observed in the Australian 
region over the last 24 hours. Expect mostly near predicted MUFs 
for the next three days with possible periods of Minor depressions 
and periods of sporadic E to continue in the Australian region.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.8E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:22%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Feb
Speed: 432 km/sec  Density:    7.3 p/cc  Temp:   151000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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