[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 February 17 issued 2330 UT on 07 Feb 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Wed Feb 8 10:30:21 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 FEBRUARY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 08 FEBRUARY - 10 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Feb: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Feb 09 Feb 10 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 73/9 72/8
COMMENT: The solar activity was at Very Low levels during the
UT day 07 February. Very Low solar activity is expected for the
next three days. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO
imagery up to 07/1948UT. The solar wind speed decreased over
the last 24 hours, ranging from 575 to 490 km/s, currently ~500km/s.
The IMF Bt varied between 4-5 nT over the UT day. North-south (Bz)
component varied between +/-4 nT. The Solar wind speed is
expected to continue to decline to nominal levels as effects
of the coronal hole subside.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 Feb : A K
Australian Region 4 21112220
Cocos Island 3 11012220
Darwin 5 22112220
Townsville 5 22112221
Learmonth 4 21112220
Alice Springs 4 11112220
Norfolk Island 4 21112111
Gingin 5 21112320
Camden 6 22122221
Canberra 2 11012110
Launceston 6 22122221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Feb :
Macquarie Island 5 22023110
Casey 15 34433222
Mawson 18 53323243
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 13 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 9 3211 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Feb 6 Quiet
10 Feb 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly Quiet in the Australian
region on 07 February. Expect mostly Quiet conditions for the
next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Feb Normal Normal Normal-poor
09 Feb Normal Normal Normal
10 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Expect possible minor depressions at the higher latitudes
with some degradation in HF communication.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Feb -4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 0
Feb 18
Mar 16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Feb 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
09 Feb 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
10 Feb 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Periods of minor depressions and sporadic E observed
in the Australian region over the last 24 hours. Variable ionospheric
support for the Antarctic region. Similar conditions are likely
for the next 24 hours.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:24%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Feb
Speed: 568 km/sec Density: 5.0 p/cc Temp: 321000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list