[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 February 17 issued 2334 UT on 06 Feb 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 7 10:34:09 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 FEBRUARY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 07 FEBRUARY - 09 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Feb: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Feb 08 Feb 09 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 73/9 74/11
COMMENT: The solar activity was at Very Low levels during the
UT day 06 February. Very Low solar activity is expected for the
next three days with a slight chance of C-class flares. No Earth
directed CMEs were observed in LASCO imagery up to 06/1948UT.
The solar wind speed decreased over the last 24 hours, ranging
from 670 to 525 km/s due to declining influence of coronal hole,
currently ~550 km/s. The IMF Bt varied between 2-6 nT over the
UT day, average ~5nT. North-south (Bz) component varied between
+4/-5 nT. The Solar wind speed is expected to continue to decline
for the first half of the UT day, 07 February, then increase
to near current levels for the second half of the UT day due
to a small equatorial positive polarity coronal hole. On the
latter half of the UT day, 08 February, expect a gradual return
to nominal levels as effects of the coronal hole subside.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 06 Feb : A K
Australian Region 8 22123322
Cocos Island 6 21122321
Darwin 8 22222322
Townsville 9 22223322
Learmonth 9 32123322
Alice Springs 7 21123222
Norfolk Island 7 22123222
Gingin 10 32123332
Camden 9 22223322
Canberra 7 21123222
Launceston 12 22224333
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Feb :
Macquarie Island 10 22114421
Casey 24 55433333
Mawson 46 55433457
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 15 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 13 3432 3332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Feb 12 Unsettled
08 Feb 12 Unsettled
09 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly Quiet to Unsettled in
the Australian region on 06 February. Expect Quiet to Unsettled
conditions for the first half of the UT day, 07 February, with
possible Active periods expected in the second half of the UT
day due to a coronal hole becoming geoeffective. On the second
half of the UT day, 08 February expect the Solar wind speed to
gradually return to nominal levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Feb Normal Normal Normal-poor
08 Feb Normal Normal Normal-poor
09 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Expect possible minor depressions at the higher latitudes
with some degradation in HF communication.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Feb 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 0
Feb 18
Mar 16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Feb 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
08 Feb 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
09 Feb 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Periods of minor depressions and sporadic E observed
in the Australian region over the last 24 hours. Variable ionospheric
support for the Antarctic region. Similar conditions are likely
for the next 24 hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Feb
Speed: 610 km/sec Density: 6.7 p/cc Temp: 455000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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