[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 December 17 issued 2332 UT on 20 Dec 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 21 10:32:49 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 DECEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 DECEMBER - 23 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Dec: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Dec 22 Dec 23 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at Very Low levels on UT day
20 Dec with three low level B-class flares from new region 2692(N18E47).
Very Low levels of solar flare activity are expected for the
next three days (21-23 Dec) with a slight chance of C-class flares.
No earthward directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO
C2 imagery on UT day 20 Dec. The solar wind speed during UT day
20 Dec declined from ~500 km/s at beginning of the UT day to
425 km/s at the time of writing this report. This is indicative
that the coronal hole effects are now waning. The Bz component
of the IMF ranged between +/- 5nT while Bt fluctuated around
4nT. Solar wind speeds are expected to continue decreasing as
the effect of coronal hole wanes although may be be influenced
by a high speed solar wind stream from another negative polarity
coronal hole over the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Dec : A K
Australian Region 4 12121111
Cocos Island 2 11010120
Darwin 3 11121110
Townsville 5 12131111
Learmonth 5 21122211
Alice Springs 3 12121110
Culgoora 4 12121111
Gingin 5 21122221
Camden 6 22231111
Canberra 2 11120110
Launceston 7 22232221
Hobart 5 12231110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Dec :
Macquarie Island 6 02242000
Casey 18 35532221
Mawson 15 53322331
Davis 12 33432230
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 1100 0122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Dec 8 Mostly Quiet
22 Dec 15 Quiet to Active
23 Dec 15 Quiet to Active
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were Quiet across the Australian
region during the UT day, 20 Dec. Mostly Quiet conditions are
expected for 21 Dec. Conditions may increase to Unsettled to
Active on 22 Dec due to the influence of a negative polarity
coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
22 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
23 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Dec -10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -5
Dec 4
Jan 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Dec -10 Near predicted monthly values
22 Dec -10 Near predicted monthly values
23 Dec -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Propagation conditions has improved slightly over the
last 24 hours. Near predicted MUFs observed across Aus/NZ regions
with Minor depressions observed during the local night in the
equatorial region. Sporadic E blanketing also observed at times
across the Australian region. Similar, yet improving conditions
may be expected to prevail today, 21 Dec.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Dec
Speed: 531 km/sec Density: 5.6 p/cc Temp: 343000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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