[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 December 17 issued 2337 UT on 19 Dec 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 20 10:37:09 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 DECEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 DECEMBER - 22 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Dec: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Dec 21 Dec 22 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at Very Low levels on UT day
19 Dec. There are currently no numbered solar regions on the
visible disk. Very Low levels of solar flare activity are expected
for the next three days (20-22 Dec). No earthward directed CMEs
were observed in the available LASCO C2 imagery on UT day 19
Dec. The solar wind speed declined during 19 Dec and is presently
below 500 Km/s. The Bz component of the IMF ranged between +/-
5nT, mostly neutral while Bt varied between 4nT and 10nT. The
outlook for the next two days(20-21 Dec) is for the solar wind
speed to decrease gradually to background levels as the effects
of coronal hole wane. A renewed enhancement in the solar wind
speed could be observed today, 20 Dec due to possible impacts
from a slow moving CME associated with a filament eruption on
15 Dec. An other negative polarity coronal hole is expected to
slightly enhance the solar wind speeds from late 22 Dec onwards.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Dec : A K
Australian Region 5 21112212
Cocos Island 3 11111211
Darwin 4 11112211
Townsville 5 21112212
Learmonth 4 21112211
Alice Springs 4 11112211
Culgoora 4 21112112
Gingin 5 21112222
Camden 5 12112212
Canberra 3 31101101
Launceston 6 22212212
Hobart 5 22112212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Dec :
Macquarie Island 1 11001110
Casey 23 55432333
Mawson 19 22123264
Davis 16 33244242
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 6 (Quiet)
Gingin 16 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15 4443 3111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Dec 15 Quiet with possible Unsettled to Active periods.
21 Dec 8 Mostly Quiet
22 Dec 15 Quiet to Active
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were Quiet across the Australian
region during the UT day, 19 Dec and are expected to remain so
for the next two days, 20-21 Dec. Unsettled to Active periods
may be observed today, 20 Dec due to possible impacts from 15
Dec slow moving CME. A negative polarity coronal hole is expected
to disturb the magnetic conditions from late 22 Dec onwards.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
21 Dec Normal-fair Fair Fair
22 Dec Normal-fair Fair Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions ranging from near predicted monthly values
to slightly depressed MUFs observed over the last 24 hours. Similar
conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Dec -15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -5
Dec 4
Jan 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Dec -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
21 Dec -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
22 Dec -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Minor MUF depressions to near monthly predicted MUFs
were observed across Aus/NZ regions on UT day 19 Dec. Incidence
of Sporadic E blanketing were mostly confined to Southern Australian
regions. Similar, yet improving conditions may be expected to
prevail today, 20 Dec.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Dec
Speed: 605 km/sec Density: 5.8 p/cc Temp: 375000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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