[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 December 17 issued 2331 UT on 10 Dec 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 11 10:31:43 EST 2017 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 DECEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 DECEMBER - 13 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Dec:  72/8


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Dec             12 Dec             13 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               74/11

COMMENT: Solar activity stayed at very low levels over the last 
24 hours. No earthward directed CME was observed during this 
period. Solar wind speed gradually decreased from around 360 
km/s to 310 km/s by 2000 UT and then showed a slow increase to 
nearly 340 km/s by 2300 UT today (UT day 10 December). The solar 
wind particle density stayed below the background levels. The 
north-south component of IMF, Bz, varied mostly between +/-3 
nT. The magnitude of total IMF, Bt, varied mostly between 1.5 
and 4.5 nT today. Solar wind stream is expected to gain some 
strength on 11 December as a recurrent coronal hole is expected 
to take a geoeffective position around that time. Very low levels 
of solar activity may be expected from 11 to 13 December.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 10 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11101001
      Cocos Island         0   10000000
      Darwin               1   11100001
      Townsville           2   11011011
      Learmonth            2   11101101
      Alice Springs        0   01000001
      Norfolk Island       2   11110011
      Gingin               1   11001101
      Camden               2   11111011
      Canberra             0   01000001
      Launceston           3   11201102
      Hobart               2   11101101    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     1   01001001
      Casey                7   23321112
      Mawson               9   11111334
      Davis                5   12222211

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              2   0010110-1     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled
12 Dec    12    Quiet to active
13 Dec    12    Quiet to active

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet levels today (UT 
day 10 December) across the Australian/NZ regions. Geomagnetic 
activity may start rising from late on 11 December as a high 
speed solar wind stream from a recurrent coronal hole is expected 
to hit the earth around that time. Some unsettled periods may 
be observed on 11 December. Geomagnetic activity may rise to 
active levels on 12 and 13 December.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Dec      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
12 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair
13 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions were observed today (UT 
day 10 December). Spread F and Sporadic E blanketing were observed 
at several low and mid latitude locations. Minor to moderate 
MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions are possible 
from 11 to 13 December.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Dec   -12

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      -5
Dec      4
Jan      4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Dec   -12    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
12 Dec   -15    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
13 Dec   -15    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%

COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions were observed across Aus/NZ 
regions today (UT day 10 December). Spread F and Sporadic E blanketing 
were observed at several low and mid latitude locations. Minor 
to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions 
are possible in the region from 11 to 13 December.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   NA
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  NA
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2473
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: NA

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Dec
Speed:NA km/sec  Density: NA p/cc  Temp: NA K  Bz: NA nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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