[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 December 17 issued 2333 UT on 09 Dec 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 10 10:33:01 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 DECEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 DECEMBER - 12 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Dec: Very low
Flares: None
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Dec: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Dec 11 Dec 12 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity stayed at very low levels over the last
24 hours. No earthward directed CME was observed during this
period. There is currently no sunspot on the solar disk visible
from the earth side. As anticipated, the solar wind stream weakened
further today (UT day 9 December) due to the continued waning
of the effect of the recurrent positive polarity coronal hole
from the northern hemisphere of the sun. Solar wind speed gradually
decreased from around 430 km/s to 350 km/s during the UT day today.
The solar wind particle density stayed below the background levels.
The north-south component of IMF, Bz, varied mostly between +/-2
nT. The magnitude of total IMF, Bt, varied mostly between 1 and
4 nT today. Solar wind stream is expected to stay normal through
10 December and early parts of 11 December. Some strengthening
in solar wind stream may start later on 11 December as a recurrent
coronal hole is expected to take a geoeffective position around
that time. Very low levels of solar activity may be expected
from 10 to 12 December.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Dec : A K
Australian Region 4 11122211
Cocos Island 3 10111220
Darwin 4 10121212
Townsville 4 11122211
Learmonth 4 11122210
Alice Springs 4 10122211
Norfolk Island 2 11011111
Gingin 4 20122220
Camden 8 11342111
Canberra 1 00012100
Launceston 4 11122211
Hobart 3 11112111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Dec :
Macquarie Island 1 10002100
Casey 12 34332221
Mawson 11 32213242
Davis 9 32323221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Dec 4 Quiet
11 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Dec 12 Quiet to unsettled, some active periods possible
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet levels today (UT
day 9 December) across the Australian/NZ regions as Bz did not
show any sustained periods of negative enough values while the
effect of the high speed solar wind stream from the recurrent
positive polarity coronal hole continued to weaken further. Geomagnetic
activity is expected to stay mostly at quiet levels on 10 December
and early parts of 11 December. Geomagnetic activity may start
rising from late on 11 December as a high speed solar wind stream
from a recurrent coronal hole is expected to hit the earth around
that time. Some unsettled periods may be observed on 11 December.
Geomagnetic activity may rise to active levels on 12 December.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Dec Normal Normal Normal
11 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions were observed today (UT
day 9 December). Spread F and Sporadic E blanketing were observed
at several low and mid latitude locations. HF conditions are
expected to stay mostly at normal levels for the next two days
(10 to 11 December). Minor to mild MUF depressions and degradations
in HF conditions are possible in the region on 12 December.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Dec -6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -5
Dec 4
Jan 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Dec -5 Near predicted monthly values
11 Dec -8 Near predicted monthly values
12 Dec -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions were observed today
(UT day 9 December). Spread F and Sporadic E blanketing
were observed at several low and mid latitude locations.
HF conditions are expected to stay mostly at normal levels
for the next two days (10 to 11 December). Minor to mild
MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions are
possible on 12 December.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: NA
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: NA
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV:NA
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: NA
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Dec
Speed:NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list