[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 December 17 issued 2330 UT on 07 Dec 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 8 10:30:29 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 DECEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 DECEMBER - 10 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Dec: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Dec 09 Dec 10 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity stayed at very low levels over the last
24 hours. No earthward directed CME was observed during this
period. There is currently one sunspots on the solar disk visible
from the earth. The solar wind stream stayed at moderate levels
today (UT day 7 December) due to the effect of the recurrent
positive polarity coronal hole from the northern hemisphere of
the sun. Solar wind speed varied between around 475 km/s and
560 km/s during the day today, showing a declining pattern towards
the late hours of the day due to the waning of the coronal hole
effect. The solar wind particle density mostly stayed just below
the background levels. The Bz component of IMF varied mostly
between +3/-5 nT. The Total IMF, Bt varied mostly between 1.5
and 6 nT today. Solar wind stream is expected to further weaken
through 8 December. Very low levels of solar activity may be
expected from 8 to 10 December.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 07 Dec : A K
Australian Region 6 12113221
Cocos Island 5 11113211
Darwin 5 12113211
Townsville 7 22213221
Learmonth 7 12113321
Alice Springs 5 11113212
Norfolk Island 6 11112223
Gingin 6 12113222
Camden 6 12213221
Canberra 4 01103211
Launceston 6 12113222
Hobart 5 12103211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Dec :
Macquarie Island 10 11205311
Casey 17 35433222
Mawson 17 43323334
Davis 17 34324324
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 17 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 13 3432 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Dec 7 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Dec 4 Quiet
10 Dec 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at lower than anticipated
levels today (UT day 7 December) across the Australian/NZ regions
as Bz did not show any sustained periods of negative enough values
while the effect of the high speed solar wind stream from the
recurrent positive polarity coronal hole continued to weaken
further. Geomagnetic activity is expected to drop down further
on 8 December and stay low after that. Geomagnetic activity is
expected to stay mostly at quiet to unsettled levels on 8 December
and then further decline to quiet and stay mostly at quiet levels
on 9 and 10 December.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Dec Normal Normal Normal
10 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions were observed on UT day
7 December. Periods of minor MUF enhancements were also observed
at some low latitude locations on this day. Spread F and Sporadic
E blanketing were observed at several low and mid latitude locations.
Minor to mild MUF depressions are possible on 8 December. HF
conditions are expected to stay mostly at normal levels on 9
and 10 December.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Dec -9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -5
Dec 4
Jan 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Dec -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
09 Dec -5 Near predicted monthly values
10 Dec -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions were observed across Aus/NZ
regions on UT day 7 December. Periods of minor MUF enhancements
were also observed at some northern locations on this day. Spread
F and Sporadic E blanketing were observed at several low and
mid latitude locations. Minor to mild MUF depressions are possible
in the Aus/NZ regions on 8 December. HF conditions are expected
to stay mostly at normal levels in this region on 9 and 10 December.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.2E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Dec
Speed: 546 km/sec Density: 5.7 p/cc Temp: 357000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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